Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices strengthened on Friday as weaker wind generation, firm gas costs and reduced imports tightened the regional balance, while Serbia decoupled sharply from neighbouring markets.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload price rose €5.60/MWh to €208.98/MWh, almost matching Romania at €208.46/MWh. Croatia and Slovenia traded close behind at €206.74/MWh and €206.58/MWh, respectively.
Bulgaria recorded the strongest increase among the larger coupled markets, gaining €12.20/MWh to €200.66/MWh.
The price rise came despite slightly cooler weather across Hungary and most of Southeast Europe. Regional consumption was forecast to increase by 184 MW to an average 31,668 MW, driven largely by a 449 MW rise across Romania and Bulgaria.
Renewable availability deteriorated. Forecast regional wind output fell by 700 MW to 1,246 MW, outweighing a smaller 108 MW decline in solar production to 5,779 MW. The sharp reduction in wind increased dependence on thermal generation and imports during higher-demand hours.
The region’s net imports fell by 180 MW to 1,370 MW. Deliveries from Austria and Slovakia towards Hungary and Slovenia declined by 292 MW to 1,449 MW, reducing access to cheaper core European electricity.
At the same time, the region remained a net exporter towards Italy by around 635 MW, an increase of 50 MW from the previous day. Italy’s price fell sharply but remained the highest among the monitored markets at €216.25/MWh, preserving a commercial incentive for westbound exports.
Hungary retained a premium of €13.75/MWh over Germany, up by €2.20, while its premium over Greece widened to €26.56/MWh. Germany settled at €195.23/MWh, while Greece eased to €182.42/MWh.
The continued Hungarian premium points to constrained access to western supply and a tighter Central and Southeast European balance. Austria traded almost level with Hungary at €209.03/MWh, suggesting the price pressure extended across the main import corridor rather than being limited to HUPX.
Fuel markets added to the bullish pressure. Austrian CEGH gas rose €2.40/MWh to €83.17/MWh, while Greek gas increased to €63/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged up to €85.82 per tonne, reinforcing high short-run costs for gas- and coal-fired plants.
Forward electricity prices also remained elevated. Hungary’s October baseload contract gained €4.50/MWh to €198/MWh, and the calendar contract rose €4 to €154.50/MWh. Gas for October and the fourth quarter climbed to €83.50/MWh.
Nearer-term Hungarian contracts moved in the opposite direction, with week 38 falling €7.50 to €183/MWh and week 39 losing €6 to €186.50/MWh. The divergence suggests that the market expects some short-term easing but continues to price substantial fuel and winter supply risks into October and longer-dated delivery.
Serbia was the main regional outlier. SEEPEX fell €10.20/MWh to €164.14/MWh, leaving it at a discount of €44.84/MWh to Hungary and more than €42/MWh below Croatia.
The Serbian result suggests that local supply conditions or cross-border constraints prevented the country’s cheaper electricity from fully converging with the higher-priced coupled markets to the north and west. Serbia’s average net import position was around 650 MW, but this did not eliminate the unusually wide price gap.
Prices in the southern Balkans rose sharply but also remained below the Hungarian hub. Montenegro gained €30.70/MWh to €185.33/MWh, while North Macedonia jumped €46.50/MWh to €179.88/MWh. Albania increased to €197.58/MWh, narrowing its discount to Hungary to €11.40/MWh.
The combination of expensive gas, reduced wind supply and lower core-European imports is keeping the regional market vulnerable to sharp daily moves. Yet Serbia’s deep discount shows that transmission availability and local generation remain just as important as fuel fundamentals: electricity was abundant enough to depress SEEPEX, but not sufficiently transferable to relieve the markets trading above €200/MWh.
