Electricity

Southeast European electricity prices could ease in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 if nuclear capacity returns and hydro inflows improve. Gas costs and transmission constraints are expected to sustain premiums during tight periods.

Western Balkan electricity trade with the European Union recovered from the second quarter but remained below year-earlier levels. Wider price spreads, weaker convergence and CBAM costs are complicating cross-border sales.

Power prices in Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania reached close to €300/MWh on 4 November, keeping Southeast European prices above western European levels despite expanding renewable capacity. Constrained firm generation, scarce flexibility and transmission limits contributed to the premium.

Low-carbon electricity from Western Balkan renewable projects will not automatically qualify for actual-emissions treatment under the EU’s CBAM. The Energy Community Secretariat modelled €8.9 million in opportunity costs for a 130 MW wind project over six months if it had to sell locally instead of accessing higher-priced EU markets.

EU electricity importers must declare embedded emissions and surrender CBAM certificates for power imported in 2026 by 30 September 2027. Certificate purchases begin in February 2027, making emissions evidence and the allocation of costs relevant to electricity contracts.

The Energy Community Secretariat called for closer coordination between Western Balkan electricity market integration and the EU’s carbon border rules. It warned that poorly aligned arrangements could discourage renewable investment and divide EU and non-EU electricity markets.