Diesel availability and prices across Southeast Europe depend on regional refinery output and transport routes, as disruptions at one plant can shift supply costs across borders. The Burgas refinery has indicated production of roughly 240,000-260,000 tonnes per month, against Bulgarian domestic consumption of up to about 190,000 tonnes.
That normally leaves an exportable surplus from Burgas, a major diesel source for the eastern Balkans. Its operating status affects supply in Bulgaria and neighbouring markets.
Other refineries also anchor regional supply. Rijeka has a higher diesel yield and greater crude flexibility following its delayed-coker investment, while Petrobrazi is running at exceptionally high utilisation and anchors Romanian product supply.
In Serbia, Pančevo remains central to supply but is exposed to sanctions-linked crude logistics through JANAF. Greece’s large Mediterranean refining system and ports provide another source: its refineries can access global crude and export products into the Balkans.
Those exports can help cover shortages caused by inland refinery outages or seasonal demand. Thessaloniki is strategically important for future product links toward North Macedonia and Serbia.
Regional supply can be balanced through Adriatic, Black Sea, Aegean, Danube and Central European routes. Differentials between routes can widen when freight costs, river levels or sanctions constrain a channel; changes in refinery throughput, river conditions, pipeline access and port availability can redirect trade quickly.
The delivered price of replacement fuel depends on which routes remain open when a local supply gap develops. The outlook for Q4 2026 is expected to favour regional refiners because imported product remains expensive.
The balance is expected to loosen gradually in Q1 2027, although winter demand or a refinery outage could still cause local shortages or sharp basis premiums.
