A 4 November assessment projects high and volatile European gas prices and persistent diesel tightness through winter 2026 to 2027. The scenarios are conditional market assessments, not quoted forward prices, and depend on weather, LNG availability, refinery operations and how quickly disrupted oil flows recover.
In the base scenario, Dutch TTF gas is projected at €80 to €100/MWh in Q4 2026 and €85 to €115/MWh in Q1 2027. For the Balkan Gas Hub, the corresponding ranges are €78 to €98/MWh and €82 to €112/MWh. A severe cold spell or renewed LNG interruption could lift TTF to €120 to €150/MWh or higher; a mild winter and stronger LNG cargo arrivals could bring prices towards €55 to €75/MWh.
EU gas storage is projected to be about 65% to 72% full at the end of December and 15% to 35% full in March under the base scenario. An exit below 15% would intensify the challenge of refilling stocks over the summer, while levels above 35% would reduce procurement pressure and the risk premium on subsequent deliveries.
The oil scenario puts Brent at about $100 to $110 a barrel in Q4 2026 and $90 to $100 a barrel in Q1 2027, assuming partial normalisation of supply. A renewed major disruption could push Brent above $120 a barrel, while a faster recovery could take it below $80 a barrel. Diesel may remain tighter than crude because low stocks and freight constraints can persist beyond the initial production disruption.
Southeast European refining margins should remain supported while imported products are expensive, the assessment says, although higher global refinery runs could reduce margins in early 2027. Local shortages remain possible if a major regional refinery loses access to crude or suffers an extended outage.
Gas and oil supply risks also feed into electricity prices. At gas prices of €80 to €100/MWh, efficient combined-cycle plants face fuel costs of roughly €135 to €180/MWh before carbon and other variable costs. Strong hydro and wind output would reduce how often these plants determine regional power prices.
A sustained LNG recovery and mild weather would weaken the gas outlook, while faster refinery recovery and inventory rebuilding would ease diesel pressure. Supply disruptions would push the balance in the opposite direction.
