Gas

A 4 November assessment projects volatile European gas prices and persistent diesel tightness through winter 2026 to 2027. The conditional scenarios depend on weather, LNG availability, refinery operations and the recovery of disrupted oil flows.

High gas costs can raise Southeast European electricity prices when weak hydro, low wind or thermal outages leave gas-fired plants setting the marginal price. In tight hours, gas-fired generation can support wholesale prices above €170-220/MWh.

Serbia is expanding gas-supply options with a 1.5 bcm per year interconnector to North Macedonia under construction. The commercial value will depend on delivered costs, route reliability, storage and the expense of new infrastructure.

Romania’s expected offshore gas production growth could leave additional supply discounted domestically unless cross-border capacity can move it to higher-priced markets. Capacity constraints could also increase the value of transmission upgrades and create recurring price spreads with Hungary and Serbia.

Romania’s Neptun Deep development is planned to reach plateau output of about 8 bcm a year, potentially reducing domestic import needs and freeing gas for neighbouring markets. The regional impact will depend on production timing, sales contracts and cross-border capacity.

The Vertical Gas Corridor is approaching a commercial test in 2026/27, with utilisation, northbound flows and cross-border rules set to show whether southern gas can become a regular, cost-effective supply route across Southeast Europe.