European gas buyers could face a second procurement challenge after winter, competing with Asian buyers for large LNG volumes to refill storage during the 2027 refill season. If inventories are depleted, summer prices and procurement costs could remain elevated even after heating demand fades.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that low storage buffers could prolong global gas tightness well into 2027. In a scenario combining a cold winter with continued LNG disruption, European Union storage could fall to extremely low levels by the end of March.
Even without that extreme scenario, buyers would need to rebuild materially depleted stocks in spring and summer as Asia secures cargoes for its own seasonal needs. Low inventories could therefore create a scarcity premium during winter and a second premium during the refill period.
Prompt prices could rise first as Europe has less stored gas available. Then summer contracts could stay firm as storage operators seek large injection volumes, flattening or inverting the normal relationship between winter and summer gas prices.
A weak winter-summer spread would reduce the commercial incentive for utilities and industrial buyers to inject gas. Policymakers can set storage targets, but if market prices do not provide sufficient carry, the cost of building inventories would ultimately fall through regulated charges, government support, strategic procurement or higher retail tariffs.
The refill challenge coincides with the European Union’s phase-out of Russian LNG, due to begin in January 2027, and continued uncertainty around Qatari supply. US LNG is expected to provide a larger share of Europe’s marginal gas balancing, increasing exposure to the reliability of US liquefaction, Atlantic freight costs and the prices Asian buyers are willing to pay.
Summer 2027 contract prices, weekly storage withdrawals and LNG arrivals will indicate how much winter pressure carries into the injection season. The first quarter of 2027 is likely to retain a significant scarcity premium unless withdrawals are unusually light. If end-March stocks fall below roughly 20%, refill demand could support summer prices; a level above 35% would materially reduce the risk of elevated refill prices.
