Europe began November with gas storage about 74% full, or roughly 842 TWh, starting the winter withdrawal season with a smaller buffer against cold weather and supply disruptions. The level leaves less room to absorb prolonged cold, low wind generation or another interruption to LNG deliveries than storage near 90% would.
The season follows a difficult summer refill after inventories ended the 2025/26 winter around 28% full. Europe therefore had a larger replenishment requirement as conflict in the Middle East disrupted LNG flows and increased competition for Atlantic Basin cargoes.
ACER estimated the upper-bound cost of refilling storage in 2026 at about €27 billion. The gas injected during the refill was among the most expensive of the past decade.
Germany started the season with storage close to 61%, well below the European Union average. Lower stocks increase the option value of gas in storage, and traders are likely to be reluctant to release it aggressively unless prompt prices are high enough, particularly while the end-March position remains uncertain.
That dynamic can preserve winter risk premiums even when daily weather is mild. Prices can also move quickly without a physical shortage, as the market rations a smaller buffer across uncertain demand outcomes.
For industrial buyers, hedging decisions can no longer rely on a single TTF view: storage trajectories, LNG arrivals and power-sector gas burn have become equally important. The winter balance will depend on how quickly inventories decline during January and February.
Prolonged cold, weak wind or interrupted LNG deliveries would further reduce the remaining cushion and increase the price of securing replacement supply. Under the base scenario, TTF averages roughly €80-100/MWh in the fourth quarter of 2026 and remains elevated in the first quarter of 2027.
A severe cold spell or renewed LNG disruption could push the front of the TTF curve above €120/MWh. A mild winter combined with stronger LNG arrivals could instead bring prices back toward €55-75/MWh.
