EU inventories and starting position
EU gas storage stood at approximately 811 TWh, or 74 billion cubic metres, on October 1, based on figures attributed to ENTSOG. Storage levels were 72% full, compared with 83%, or about 940 TWh, a year earlier. The lower starting position reflects substantial withdrawals during the previous heating season.
By April 1, storage had fallen to 28% after roughly 620 TWh was drawn down over winter. Central and eastern Europe entered October with a stronger buffer. Across Czechia, Slovakia, Poland, Romania and Hungary, storage averaged 78.6% full.
LNG requirements and import capability
ENTSOG estimates a reference winter would require approximately 1,060 TWh of LNG, equivalent to 96 billion cubic metres, to meet demand and leave storage at 30% full by the season’s end. Physical import capacity appears sufficient, with winter regasification capability estimated at around 1,600 TWh. Cargo availability is identified as the greater uncertainty.
Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is cited as a factor that increases competition for global LNG supplies. Under a tighter LNG scenario, end-winter inventories could fall well below 30%. The risk is linked to cold weather accelerating consumption.
Withdrawal management and market exposure
The infrastructure to manage winter demand remains in place across Europe. However, lower opening stocks mean buyers are more exposed to the price of securing the next cargo. Careful management of withdrawals is highlighted as relevant under conditions of reduced storage buffers.
