European benchmark gas futures rose above €100/MWh in late October, increasing winter fuel-cost risks for Southeast Europe’s gas-fired power fleet. IENE reported that low storage and uncertainty over liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries were tightening the market ahead of winter.
IENE put the Dutch TTF November futures average at €98.91/MWh for the week ended 30 October, up 11.3% from the previous week. The contract reached €100.341/MWh on 28 October and ended Friday at €103.944/MWh. As of 4 November, the one-month forward level was €92.695/MWh, rather than the late-October peak.
European gas storage was 74.62% full as November began, while Germany’s stood at 61.03%, according to IENE. Competition for LNG cargoes intensified amid Gulf shipping constraints.
IENE recorded gas-fired electricity output increases of 69.52% in Hungary and 13.40% in Greece during the reporting week. Italian thermal production also rose, primarily through gas. Utilities and industrial consumers face exposure to high-cost marginal generation alongside rising heating demand and reduced renewable output. Gas-price increases do not translate mechanically into wholesale electricity prices, as generator efficiency, emissions costs, plant availability and bidding conditions also matter. IENE said physical fuel contracts and electricity hedges should be reviewed together.
