Electricity prices across southeastern Europe declined for September 30 delivery as forecasts pointed to stronger wind and solar generation and lower demand, reducing the region’s net import requirement. Italy largely bucked the trend, widening its price premium over neighbouring markets.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead price fell by €24.50 to €145.63/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM declined by €25.60 to €144.31/MWh. Bulgaria recorded the largest absolute drop among the markets covered, with IBEX prices decreasing by €28 to €133.80/MWh.
Regional supply conditions improved considerably. Forecast average wind generation rose by 1,519 MW to 6,206 MW, while solar output increased by 939 MW to 5,904 MW. Combined, the two renewable sources were expected to generate 12,110 MW, covering approximately 42% of forecast regional consumption.
Electricity demand was projected to decline by 353 MW to 29,112 MW. Lower consumption, coupled with stronger renewable generation, reduced the region’s forecast net import requirement to just 88 MW, compared with 725 MW a day earlier.
Despite the near-balanced regional supply position, cross-border electricity flows remained significant. Imports through the Austrian and Slovak interfaces were forecast at 1,003 MW, down by 486 MW, while net exports towards Italy increased by 124 MW to 1,326 MW.
Italy’s day-ahead price edged down by just €1.10 to €201.96/MWh, widening its premium over Hungary to €56.33/MWh, compared with approximately €32.93/MWh a day earlier. The growing price differential increased the potential incentive for electricity deliveries towards Italy, although actual trading margins remained dependent on transmission capacity, market access and delivery costs.
Price differences across southeastern Europe also remained pronounced, reflecting uneven market conditions and varying degrees of alignment with central European prices.
Serbia’s SEEPEX remained the cheapest market in the group, with prices falling by €7.10 to €102.94/MWh, or €42.69/MWh below Hungary. North Macedonia’s MEMO declined by €24.10 to €108.08/MWh, while Greece’s HENEX dropped by €12.40 to €109.57/MWh.
Montenegro’s BELEN recorded a €15 decrease to €115.92/MWh, maintaining a discount of approximately €29.71/MWh to Hungary. Albania’s ALPEX, by contrast, fell by only €1.10 to €146.47/MWh, leaving it close to the Hungarian level and significantly above several neighbouring southeastern European markets.
Slovenia and Croatia remained more closely aligned with higher-priced central European markets. Slovenia’s BSP declined by €24.90 to €149.11/MWh, while Croatia’s CROPEX fell by €24.80 to €147.98/MWh. Austria settled at €155.21/MWh, compared with Germany’s €140.75/MWh.
Hungary’s price premium over Germany increased slightly to €4.88/MWh, despite substantial declines in both markets. Romania traded just €1.32/MWh below Hungary, highlighting the close price alignment between the two markets compared with the wider discounts recorded in Serbia, Greece and North Macedonia.
Forward electricity prices also declined, although quotations continued to indicate substantially higher prices than the latest Hungarian spot market level. Hungarian week 41 power fell by €7 to €195/MWh, week 42 declined by €6 to €199/MWh, and the October contract dropped by €7 to €197.50/MWh.
The October forward price remained approximately €51.87/MWh above the September 30 spot price, indicating that improved renewable generation and a lower forecast import requirement had not eliminated the premium embedded in near-term delivery contracts.
Hungary’s week 41 forward price spread over Germany widened by €11 to €39/MWh, while the October spread increased slightly to €40/MWh. These movements indicated that the forward market continued to price in a regional premium, even as outright electricity prices declined.
Gas prices provided additional relief to energy markets. Austrian CEGH gas fell by €3.10 to €71.64/MWh, while the Greek quotation declined by €1.90 to €59.60/MWh. The October gas contract dropped by €3.50 to €71/MWh, whereas the fourth-quarter contract remained unchanged at €74.50/MWh. EU carbon allowance prices edged down by €0.20 to €85.95/t.
The September 30 market data pointed to an improved renewable supply balance and sharply reduced aggregate import dependence across southeastern Europe. However, persistent price differences continued to make cross-border transmission access a key factor in electricity trading economics. While regional supply was forecast to approach demand, Italy’s electricity price remained almost €100/MWh above Serbia’s, and Hungarian October power continued to trade close to €200/MWh.
