Southeast European day-ahead electricity markets showed a sharp divergence for Sept. 29 delivery, with prices rising across Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and the northern Balkans while Serbia, Greece, Montenegro and North Macedonia remained significantly cheaper. The pattern highlighted growing pressure on north-south and east-west trading corridors.
Hungary’s HUPX base price increased by €8.9/MWh to €170.11/MWh, while Romania rose €15.6/MWh to €169.92/MWh and Bulgaria gained €15.7/MWh to €161.82/MWh. Croatia reached €172.76/MWh and Slovenia €174.01/MWh. By contrast, Serbia’s SEEPEX averaged just €110.06/MWh, while Greece fell to €121.97/MWh, Montenegro to €130.96/MWh and North Macedonia to €132.21/MWh.
The result was an unusually fragmented regional market. Serbia traded almost €60/MWh below Hungary, while Greece was about €48/MWh cheaper than HUPX. Montenegro and North Macedonia were roughly €38-39/MWh below Hungary. Albania, at €147.58/MWh, remained around €23/MWh cheaper. Italy was the main high-price market at about €203/MWh, nearly €93/MWh above Serbia.
A major change also occurred between Hungary and Germany. German day-ahead prices fell to around €165.83/MWh, leaving Hungary about €4.3/MWh higher. Just one day earlier, Hungary had traded around €34/MWh below Germany, representing a swing of almost €39/MWh in the bilateral spread.
Austria stood at €180.55/MWh, while Italy remained the region’s highest-priced major market at approximately €203/MWh.
The reversal coincided with a significant change in the regional physical balance. Combined Hungary and SEE consumption increased to 29,105 MW, around 740 MW higher than the previous day. At the same time, the region moved from net exports of 1,288 MW on Sept. 28 to net imports of 555 MW on Sept. 29 — a swing of more than 1.8 GW.
Imports from the Austria-Slovakia and wider central European direction reached around 1,367 MW, reversing the previous day’s 501 MW flow in the opposite direction.
The shift helps explain the rise in HUPX and nearby markets, although it does not fully explain the regional price differences. Hungary remained a net importer of around 1,007 MW, compared with 731 MW a day earlier. Domestic consumption reached 4,516 MW, while generation was around 3,509 MW.
Commercial flows showed particularly strong imports from Slovakia and Romania, while Hungary continued exporting electricity towards Croatia and Slovenia.
Romania remained a net exporter, but its surplus fell sharply to about 187 MW, down from 866 MW on Monday. Bulgaria’s exports also declined to 571 MW from 1,212 MW. The reduction in northern and eastern SEE supply coincided with a recovery in regional demand.
The southern markets followed a different pattern.
Greece fell €13.1/MWh to €121.97/MWh, despite average exports of more than 1 GW. Its hourly price profile showed strong renewable-driven compression during the daytime. The peak-period average was only €55.7/MWh, compared with €188.2/MWh during off-peak hours, while the minimum hourly price reached zero.
Serbia remained even cheaper on a baseload basis. SEEPEX averaged €110.1/MWh, with peak power at €103.1/MWh and a daily minimum of €9.8/MWh. However, the maximum reached €240.1/MWh, demonstrating that the low daily average masked significant hourly volatility.
Montenegro fell by more than €34/MWh to around €131/MWh, while North Macedonia declined by approximately €18/MWh to €132.2/MWh.
The timing of the lowest prices is particularly important. Greece experienced its strongest price compression during the solar-heavy daytime period, while Serbia recorded its daily minimum during the early hours.
This indicates that the Balkan price discount was not caused by a single factor, but by a combination of local generation, hourly demand, renewable output, cross-border capacity and transmission constraints.
Italy continued to act as the main high-price outlet for surplus SEE electricity. Regional exports towards Italy averaged around 1,245 MW, while Italian prices remained near €203/MWh.
Montenegro’s interconnector flows demonstrate the strength of this commercial pull. The country exported around 532 MW towards Italy on a baseload basis even while remaining a small net importer overall, effectively drawing electricity from neighbouring Balkan markets and transferring part of it westwards through the submarine interconnector.
Forward markets also indicated continued firmness in Hungary. Hungarian Week 41 power increased to around €202/MWh, Week 42 to €205/MWh and October to €204.50/MWh. At the same time, Hungary-Germany forward premiums narrowed, suggesting expectations of somewhat stronger central European supply relative to SEE.
Gas remained expensive, with CEGH around €74.75/MWh, while EUA carbon allowances traded near €86.17/t.
The Sept. 29 session therefore showed less a uniformly tightening Southeast European market than a fragmented system in which transmission capacity increasingly determines electricity value.
Hungary and Romania responded to stronger regional import requirements, Italy maintained a strong pull on Balkan electricity, while Serbia and Greece continued to record much lower hourly price structures.
For traders, the key signal is the spread rather than the regional average. With prices ranging from roughly €110/MWh in Serbia to €203/MWh in Italy, substantial cross-border value remains available. However, the persistence of these differences also shows how much electricity-market value remains constrained by congestion and limited transfer capacity.
