Day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe diverged sharply for delivery on Tuesday, September 8, as stronger solar supply compressed daytime values while Italy and parts of the Western Balkans retained substantial premiums.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload was little changed at €176.58/MWh, while Romania closely tracked it at €176.65/MWh. Serbia eased €12.2/MWh to €178.33/MWh, but Montenegro jumped €51.4/MWh to €192.33/MWh and Albania gained €14.1/MWh to €182.25/MWh. At the other end of the market, Greece averaged just €145.93/MWh and Bulgaria €157.98/MWh. Italy remained the clear premium market at €224.46/MWh, leaving a €78.53/MWh gap between Greece and Italy and a €47.88/MWh Italian premium to Hungary.
The widening geographic spread came despite a relatively balanced regional system. SEE plus Hungary demand was forecast at 31.47 GW, up about 827 MW day on day, while solar generation was forecast to rise by more than 2 GW to 7.98 GW. Wind was broadly stable at 2.33 GW. The region nevertheless remained a net importer of around 1.26 GW, with inflows from Austria and Slovakia rising to 2.19 GW while approximately 1.45 GW continued to flow toward Italy.
That combination highlights the increasingly important role of cross-border constraints. Strong solar availability was sufficient to depress prices heavily during the middle of the day, but it did not eliminate the premium attached to westbound capacity toward Italy or the local premiums appearing in parts of the Western Balkans.
Hungary illustrates the widening hourly risk. HUPX fell to just €25/MWh in hour 13 before climbing to €297.1/MWh in hour 20. The baseload average of €176.58/MWh therefore concealed an intraday swing of more than €270/MWh.
Similar solar-driven troughs appeared elsewhere. Greece touched €0/MWh and Bulgaria €20.2/MWh, before both markets moved above €260/MWh during the evening ramp. Croatia fell to €28.1/MWh before reaching €304.5/MWh.
The Western Balkans showed a different profile. Serbia’s minimum price was still €96/MWh, with a maximum of €284.1/MWh, while Montenegro never fell below €150/MWh and reached €270/MWh. This meant the solar-driven midday discount visible across Greece, Bulgaria and several Central European markets was much less pronounced in Serbia and Montenegro.
Serbia was nevertheless one of the day’s clearest bearish movers. Its net import requirement narrowed to about 458 MW from 578 MW a day earlier as average generation increased to 3.07 GW from 2.91 GW, outpacing the increase in demand to 3.53 GW from 3.49 GW. Serbia remained supplied by several neighboring markets while continuing to send power toward Montenegro, helping reduce the Serbian premium to HUPX to only €1.75/MWh.
Montenegro moved in the opposite direction. BELEN’s €192.33/MWh settlement left it €15.75/MWh above Hungary. Montenegro remained a net importer of around 105 MW, even as flows toward Italy averaged roughly 503 MW. Imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia were therefore effectively supporting both domestic requirements and continued exports across the Adriatic corridor. The combination helps explain why the Montenegrin market retained a strong local premium despite much cheaper generation elsewhere in SEE.
Forward prices also strengthened. Hungarian Week 38 power rose €6.5/MWh to €181/MWh, Week 39 gained €5 to €188/MWh, and October increased €3.5 to €188/MWh. CEGH gas rose to €75.06/MWh, while EU carbon allowances increased to €84.74/tonne. Coal moved slightly lower.
The daily market signal is therefore increasingly about hourly and geographic exposure rather than the regional baseload average. Hungary, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia clustered around €176-179/MWh on baseload, but those averages masked near-zero or €20-30/MWh midday prices in several markets and evening values approaching or exceeding €300/MWh.
With Italy continuing to draw roughly 1.45 GW from the region while more than 2.1 GW enters SEE and Hungary from the Central European core, transmission capacity, storage and flexible generation are becoming increasingly valuable. The September 8 curve again shows why a flat baseload hedge is becoming a weaker proxy for the actual physical exposure of generators, traders and large industrial consumers across SEE.
