April 2026 brought a regional softening in Southeast Europe electricity markets, with average day-ahead prices declining across almost all observed markets. Milder weather, lower demand, and stronger solar and renewable output reduced pressure on thermal generation and cross-border imports. Italy stayed the premium market at €119.47/MWh, while Türkiye fell to €18.45/MWh. Serbia averaged €91.51/MWh, down 3.29% month-on-month and up 5.67% year-on-year.
Demand falls after winter drive lower price pressure
The main driver cited for April was demand destruction after winter conditions. Serbia recorded the sharpest monthly demand fall at 31.78%, followed by Romania at 16.94%, Bulgaria at 14.09%, Italy at 13.33%, Greece at 10.93%, Türkiye at 7.01%, and Hungary at 6.64%. The demand decline reduced marginal gas and coal dispatch needs. It also supported a stronger daytime price signal from renewables.
Regional price clustering narrows, with Italy remaining an outlier
Price convergence became more visible across several markets during April. Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, and Croatia clustered around €88–91/MWh, while Romania and Hungary remained slightly higher at €95–97/MWh. Italy’s premium of €119.47/MWh was linked to continued gas dependence and structural import requirements. Net imports in April were reported at 4,433.73 GWh.
Serbia shifts toward net exports as hydro output supports the mix
Serbia’s trading position improved in April, supported by changes in generation shares and balances. Coal and lignite still dominated the mix at 52.49%, while hydro accounted for 39.52%. With that structure, Serbia became a net exporter with 155.16 GWh of net exports. SEEPEX volumes reached 484.04 GWh, up 5.87% month-on-month.
Hydro variability shapes regional balancing conditions
Hydro remained the main balancing variable across the region in April. Greece saw hydro fall by 57.38%, while Croatia dropped by 21.82%. Italy’s hydro rose by 21.75%, with Türkiye up by 9.96%, Serbia up by 7.22%, and Romania up by 7.14%. The uneven hydro performance was reflected in non-uniform price declines despite broad demand weakness.
TTF gas prices ease as demand softens; LNG availability improves
T T F moved from above €48/MWh early in April to a low of €38.78/MWh on 17 April before stabilising in the mid-€‑‑‑‑€‑‑‑‑€‑‑‑‑€‑‑
T T F moved from above €48/MWh early in April to a low of €38.78/MWh on 17 April before stabilising in the mid-€40/MWh range. Lower gas demand, better LNG availability, and high solar generation weighed on gas-linked power pricing levels during the month . Middle East risk and LNG-flow uncertainty were cited as factors limiting a deeper correction.
Southeast Europe transitions from scarcity pricing toward spring surplus sensitivity
The overall April pattern was described as a shift from winter scarcity pricing toward spring surplus sensitivity across Southeast Europe . For market participants producing power, that shift increased exposure to daytime solar cannibalisation and the occurrence of negative or very low hourly prices, alongside a stronger need for hedging and storage support plus flexible hydro and cross-border optimisation. For traders, April was associated with wider intraday and cross-border opportunities, particularly around Italy’s premium pricing, Hungary’s import role, and Serbia’s temporary export strength.
