Day-ahead electricity prices in Serbia rose by €47.20/MWh to €150.18/MWh for October 1, as Hungary, Romania and northern Balkan markets recorded significant increases, while Albania and Montenegro moved lower.
The divergence widened regional price spreads despite forecasts for higher renewable generation and slightly lower overall electricity consumption. A sharper increase in Germany also reversed Hungary’s price premium over the German market, alongside reduced electricity imports from Austria and Slovakia.
Hungary’s HUPX market settled at €163.72/MWh, up €18.10/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM increased by €20.20/MWh to €164.48/MWh. The two markets recorded a narrow price difference of just €0.76/MWh, contrasting with wider spreads across southern Europe.
Slovenia’s day-ahead price climbed by €21.70/MWh to €170.77/MWh, while Croatia rose by €21.40/MWh to €169.38/MWh. Both markets remained above Hungary, with price premiums of approximately €7/MWh and €6/MWh, respectively.
Serbia recorded the largest daily price increase among the covered Southeast European electricity exchanges. Despite the jump, its day-ahead price remained €13.54/MWh below Hungary’s, while projected net electricity imports averaged 735 MW. Hungary and Croatia were also expected to remain net importers, at 995 MW and 896 MW, respectively.
Southern European markets followed a different trajectory. Albania’s ALPEX recorded the steepest decline, with prices falling by €48.50/MWh to €97.94/MWh, the lowest level among the surveyed markets. Montenegro’s BELEN market decreased by €1.70/MWh to €114.22/MWh.
Greece recorded a modest increase of €1.60/MWh to €111.17/MWh, while Bulgaria rose by €1.10/MWh to €134.86/MWh. North Macedonia’s day-ahead price increased by €7.80/MWh to €115.91/MWh.
Hungary consequently traded €52.55/MWh above Greece and nearly €66/MWh above Albania. These price differences highlight potential opportunities for cross-border electricity trading, although actual margins depend on hourly price movements, available transmission capacity and delivery costs.
Greece and Bulgaria were forecast to remain substantial net electricity exporters, with average net exports of 1,826 MW and 1,340 MW, respectively. Their combination of comparatively lower prices and strong exports illustrates the uneven distribution of electricity supply across regional markets.
Across Hungary and Southeast Europe, the aggregate electricity balance shifted from 226 MW of net imports on September 30 to 248 MW of net exports on October 1. Forecast electricity consumption declined by 80 MW to 29,382 MW.
Renewable generation was expected to increase, led by solar power. Forecast solar output rose by 1,983 MW to 6,759 MW, more than offsetting a 383 MW decline in wind generation to 4,937 MW. Combined wind and solar production therefore increased by approximately 1,600 MW.
The higher renewable output and slightly lower consumption do not, on their own, explain the substantial price increases recorded in several markets. Determining the specific causes would require more detailed information on hourly generation, power plant availability, cross-border flows and transmission constraints.
Germany represented the most significant external price movement. Its day-ahead electricity price surged by €54.40/MWh to €195.18/MWh. This reversed the relative price relationship with Hungary, which moved from trading at a premium of approximately €4.90/MWh on the previous day to a discount of €31.46/MWh.
At the same time, forecast electricity imports from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia fell by 686 MW to 479 MW. Italy remained the most expensive market in the comparison, with prices reaching €209.95/MWh, while net electricity flows towards Italy averaged 1,381 MW.
Forward electricity prices also strengthened. Hungarian week 41 contracts increased by €3.50/MWh to €198.50/MWh, while week 42 contracts gained €7/MWh to €206/MWh. November electricity prices climbed to €198.50/MWh, approximately €35/MWh above Serbia’s October 1 day-ahead price.
Gas markets added further cost pressure. Austria’s CEGH gas price increased to €73.73/MWh, while Greek gas reached €66.45/MWh. Meanwhile, carbon allowance prices eased to €85.09 per tonne, providing some relief to fossil-fuel generators.
For electricity buyers, the immediate price pressure was particularly pronounced in Serbia and the northern Balkan markets. Although higher forecast renewable generation improved the overall regional supply balance, it did not prevent Serbia’s day-ahead electricity price from rising by €47.20/MWh. The contrasting movements across neighbouring markets underline the importance of cross-border flows, market coupling and local supply conditions in determining daily electricity prices.
