Serbian day-ahead electricity prices fell for delivery on 2 October, moving against increases recorded in most neighbouring markets. The decline widened Serbia’s price discount to Hungary, although sharp evening price peaks showed that lower daily averages did not eliminate exposure to high hourly costs.
SEEPEX settled at €137.92/MWh, down €12.30/MWh from the previous day. Hungary’s HUPX, by contrast, increased by €7.60/MWh to €171.27/MWh, leaving Serbian electricity €33.35/MWh cheaper. The price gap widened by roughly €20/MWh in a single session.
Romania recorded a smaller decline, with prices falling €2.60/MWh to €161.91/MWh. Elsewhere, markets moved higher, with Slovenia rising €17.50/MWh to €188.30/MWh and Croatia gaining €9.30/MWh to €178.66/MWh.
The wider price differences increased the potential value of cross-border electricity flows from Serbia and the eastern Balkans towards higher-priced markets. Actual trading opportunities, however, depend on hourly spreads, available transmission capacity and the cost of securing cross-border access.
Montenegro’s BELEN increased by €28.70/MWh to €142.87/MWh, while Albania recorded the region’s largest daily increase, rising €61/MWh to €158.90/MWh. North Macedonia advanced €20.80/MWh to €136.75/MWh.
Despite these increases, all three markets remained below HUPX. Montenegro traded at a €28.40/MWh discount to Hungary, while Albania and North Macedonia were €12.37/MWh and €34.52/MWh cheaper, respectively.
Greece remained the lowest-priced market in the comparison at €120.52/MWh, despite a €9.40/MWh daily increase. Bulgaria rose €3.80/MWh to €138.63/MWh, keeping both markets well below Hungary and western European markets.
The regional price movements coincided with an improving supply balance. Forecast average demand across Hungary and southeastern Europe declined by around 297 MW to 29,086 MW, while the region’s net export position increased from 248 MW to 593 MW.
Forecast solar generation climbed by 1,731 MW to 6,539 MW, more than offsetting a 1,016 MW decline in wind generation to 4,923 MW. The increase in combined renewable output coincided with lower demand, although its impact differed substantially across individual markets and delivery hours.
Net imports from Austria and Slovakia fell to 132 MW from 479 MW. At the same time, commercial exports towards Italy remained high at 1,359 MW, only slightly below the previous day’s 1,381 MW.
Italy maintained a substantial price premium, with its national average reaching €216.17/MWh. Germany stood at €200.50/MWh and Austria at €198.69/MWh, highlighting the continuing east-west electricity price divide.
Daily averages, however, masked significant intraday volatility. Serbian hourly prices ranged from €19.40/MWh to €280/MWh, with the daily maximum recorded in hour 20. The peak-period average was €101.30/MWh, compared with €174.60/MWh during off-peak hours.
Montenegro recorded a similar pattern, with prices ranging from €15/MWh to €258.90/MWh. Greece briefly dropped to -€1/MWh before reaching €240.70/MWh later in the day, while Croatia’s maximum climbed to €315.10/MWh.
The hourly price profiles underline the importance of when electricity is produced and consumed. Strong solar generation can push prices lower during daylight hours, while demand and tighter supply conditions can drive significantly higher prices during the evening.
Forward markets also moved higher. Hungarian November power increased by €3/MWh to €208/MWh, while week 41 rose to €199.50/MWh. November gas gained €1.50/MWh to €75.50/MWh, and carbon allowances edged up to €85.64 per tonne.
For Serbian electricity buyers, the lower SEEPEX daily settlement reduced the average procurement cost. However, the €280/MWh evening peak demonstrates that a lower daily price does not necessarily shield market participants from substantial costs during periods of tighter hourly supply.
