Southeast European day-ahead electricity markets remained elevated on Friday, but trading conditions showed a clear division between the higher-priced Central European and Italian corridor and the lower-priced Serbian market zone.
The regional benchmark HUPX settled at €123.26/MWh, remaining almost unchanged compared with the previous day. Slovenia reached €125.40/MWh, Croatia traded at €119.61/MWh, Romania at €116.24/MWh, while Bulgaria and Greece converged at €115.64/MWh. Italy remained the most expensive market at €148.43/MWh, while Serbia recorded the lowest regional price at €106.01/MWh. SEEPEX was therefore around €17.25/MWh below HUPX and more than €42/MWh below Italy, highlighting a clear price gap between Balkan markets.
The Serbian market showed the strongest intraday volatility across the region. SEEPEX dropped to €20/MWh during hour 14 before climbing to €208.10/MWh during hour 21. The nearly €188/MWh spread demonstrates the increasing impact of midday solar surpluses followed by evening scarcity once photovoltaic production declines while electricity demand remains elevated.
Regional electricity demand increased slightly to 31,291 MW, while net imports declined to 658 MW from 899 MW a day earlier. Total generation remained close to 30.6 GW. Wind generation increased by approximately 584 MW to 1,771 MW, partially compensating for a 520 MW decline in hydro generation to 4,871 MW. Solar production remained strong at 6,302 MW, while coal generation reached 6,348 MW, gas-fired output stood at 4,521 MW, and nuclear production remained stable at 5,579 MW.
Bulgaria remained the leading electricity exporter in SEE, producing around 5,112 MW against consumption of 3,660 MW and achieving a net surplus of approximately 1,453 MW. Bulgarian exports averaged around 795 MW towards Romania, 280 MW towards Serbia, 274 MW towards Greece and 170 MW towards North Macedonia. Stable nuclear production of around 1,895 MW, combined with almost 1 GW of solar generation, supported Bulgarian exports and helped maintain competitive prices compared with neighbouring markets.
Serbia remained structurally short, with consumption of approximately 3,495 MW against generation of 3,022 MW, resulting in average net imports of around 473 MW. Coal-fired generation provided approximately 2,529 MW, hydropower contributed 499 MW, and wind generation supplied 278 MW. Serbia mainly imported electricity from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia and Montenegro, while exporting limited volumes towards Romania and Montenegro.
Romania’s electricity deficit narrowed to around 149 MW as consumption declined to 5,547 MW and generation reached 5,398 MW. The country continued to rely heavily on regional trading links, importing from Bulgaria while exporting towards Hungary during peak periods. Romania-to-Hungary flows averaged approximately 806 MW during the strongest hours.
Hungary remained a net importer of approximately 634 MW, with generation of 3,773 MW below demand of 4,407 MW. Nuclear generation contributed around 1,855 MW, solar 1,248 MW and gas-fired production 448 MW. Although the Hungary-Germany spot price spread narrowed significantly, Hungarian forward prices continued to reflect a substantial market premium.
Croatia recorded one of the largest electricity deficits in the region, reaching approximately 949 MW. Domestic generation of 1,241 MW covered only slightly more than half of demand, leaving the country dependent on imports mainly from Hungary and Slovenia.
Montenegro imported around 97 MW on a net basis despite exporting approximately 493 MW to Italy through the submarine interconnector. Domestic generation reached 326 MW, including 201 MW from coal, 32 MW from hydro and 44 MW from wind. The Montenegro-Italy day-ahead price spread exceeded €31/MWh, preserving strong commercial incentives for westbound exports.
The regional trading pattern remained clearly defined: Serbia benefited from lower midday solar-driven prices, Bulgaria continued to support regional exports, Croatia and Hungary remained dependent on imports, while Italy acted as the premium destination for Balkan electricity flows. Evening scarcity signals remained much stronger than daily averages, reinforcing the growing importance of flexible hydro capacity, cross-border transmission and battery storage solutions in managing future price volatility.
