Electricity prices across Southeast Europe rose sharply on Monday, October 5, as the return of weekday demand coincided with weaker wind generation. Hungary recorded one of the region’s strongest price increases, widening its premium over Germany to €76.14/MWh.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead average jumped €71.90 to €232.76/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM increased €67.50 to €228.48/MWh. Albania recorded the largest rise among the markets covered, with its average climbing €119.80 to €277.08/MWh.
The price increases came as regional electricity consumption was forecast to rise to an average 28,706 MW, up 2,758 MW, or 10.6%, from Sunday. At the same time, forecast wind generation fell by 886 MW to 2,093 MW, while solar output declined by a smaller 87 MW to 5,549 MW.
The combination of higher demand and lower renewable generation implies around 3,731 MW of additional supply requirements from other generation sources and imports compared with Sunday. The figures indicate a tighter weekday supply balance, although they do not determine the precise contribution of individual factors to market prices.
Regional net imports increased by 532 MW to 1,636 MW, while inflows from Austria and Slovakia into Hungary and Slovenia rose by 296 MW to 1,326 MW. The increase points to stronger reliance on electricity from neighbouring Central European markets.
Germany moved in the opposite direction. Its day-ahead average declined €11.70 to €156.62/MWh, while Austria increased €43.20 to €200.33/MWh. Hungary therefore moved from a roughly €7.40/MWh discount to Germany on Sunday to a €76.14/MWh premium on Monday.
The sharp divergence created a stronger price incentive for electricity to flow towards Hungary. However, the ability of traders to capture that spread depended on available cross-border capacity, hourly price differences and transmission costs. Daily averages alone do not establish an executable trading margin.
Croatia’s CROPEX average increased €59.80 to €219.83/MWh, while Slovenia’s BSP rose €58.50 to €217.71/MWh. Both markets remained below Hungary, by €12.93/MWh and €15.05/MWh respectively.
Bulgaria’s IBEX increased €56.10 to €203.78/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN rose €51.60 to €209.92/MWh, reflecting the broad-based increase across much of the region.
Serbia recorded a more moderate increase. SEEPEX rose €14.70 to €169.68/MWh, leaving it €63.08/MWh below Hungary and €58.80/MWh below Romania. Serbia nevertheless recorded average net imports of 862 MW, showing that a market can remain a significant importer while maintaining a substantial price discount to neighbouring exchanges.
Romania recorded 1,407 MW of net imports, followed by Croatia at 1,090 MW and Hungary at 627 MW. Bulgaria and Greece moved in the opposite direction, recording net exports of 1,445 MW and 992 MW, respectively.
Greece’s HENEX average increased €38.70 to €149.51/MWh, remaining €83.26/MWh below Hungary. North Macedonia recorded the lowest day-ahead price among the markets covered, at €145.40/MWh, after an increase of €13.70.
The gap between North Macedonia and Albania reached €131.68/MWh, highlighting the uneven distribution of price pressure across Southeast European markets despite broadly similar regional conditions.
Forward prices did not follow the same upward pattern as the spot market. Hungarian week-41 electricity declined €3.50 to €196/MWh, while week 42 fell €4 to €203/MWh. November contracts remained at €208/MWh, below Monday’s spot average.
Fuel and carbon markets were comparatively stable. Austrian CEGH spot gas increased marginally by €0.20 to €75.22/MWh, while Greek gas fell €2.30 to €69/MWh. EU carbon allowances remained unchanged at €84.42 per tonne.
The clearest signal from Monday’s market was therefore the sharp widening of regional power-price spreads. Although imports increased across several markets, Hungary’s premium over Germany expanded substantially, making cross-border transmission capacity increasingly important for meeting the stronger weekday demand and managing regional price differences.
