Cross-border electricity trade in Southeast Europe declined during Week 26, even though regional electricity demand increased sharply. Net electricity trade fell 6.0% to 972 GWh, while consumption rose 12.7% to 18.41 TWh. At first glance, this looks counterintuitive. Higher demand often means higher imports. In Week 26, the region instead leaned more heavily on domestic generation, particularly thermal output.
The explanation sits in the generation mix. Regional thermal production rose 24.7% to 6.52 TWh, with gas, coal and lignite units all contributing more. This domestic dispatch reduced reliance on cross-border supplies in some markets, even as prices increased. The region did not become more comfortable; it became more self-supplied through higher-cost generation.
Italy remained the largest net importer, but its imports fell 9.3% to 1.02 TWh. Croatia also reduced net imports by 5.5%. These reductions did not indicate weak demand. Italy’s demand surged by 22.9%, while Croatia’s rose 15.5%. In both cases, domestic generation responded strongly, especially thermal production. The reduction in imports therefore reflected dispatch substitution, not relaxed market conditions.
Other markets moved in the opposite direction. Greece increased net imports by 54.0% to 254 GWh, while Romania and Hungary also relied more heavily on imports, with net import volumes rising 150.9% and 60.7% respectively. Serbia shifted from net exporter to marginal net importer. Bulgaria remained a significant net exporter, while Türkiye maintained a stable export position.
This mixed flow picture shows that SEE should not be analysed as a single import-dependent block. Each country entered the heatwave week with different generation availability, renewable output, hydro conditions and price links. Some systems paid for domestic thermal dispatch. Others paid for imports. Some remained exporters because their generation stack allowed it.
For traders, this creates a rich but complex spread environment. High prices in Hungary and Romania, relatively lower prices in Bulgaria and Greece, Italy’s import needs and Serbia’s shift in balance all create cross-border opportunities. But the value depends on available transfer capacity, congestion, scheduled flows and hourly price shape. Weekly averages only show part of the story.
For system planners, the decline in regional net trade during a demand surge also raises a strategic question. When every country faces heat at the same time, cross-border imports are not a universal solution. Domestic flexibility, reserve margins and dispatchable capacity remain essential. Interconnectors help most when surplus exists somewhere in the region. During broad heat stress, the market increasingly prices the scarcity of firm supply.
Week 26 showed that SEE’s cross-border system is active, but not a substitute for domestic resilience.
Elevated by Virtu.Energy
