The agreement between Austria’s OMV and Germany’s Uniper to supply gas from Uniper’s Black Sea project in Romania’s economic zone has drawn attention to Romania’s growing significance in the European gas market. The five-year contract, which will provide 15 terawatt-hours of natural gas from the Neptun Deep project, marks a key development after Russia’s halt of gas supplies through Ukraine and a broader reduction in EU energy imports from Moscow due to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The deal represents approximately 1.5% of Germany’s gas imports for 2024 and is the first to support the long-anticipated deepwater gas project, which has been in development for over a decade since gas was first discovered in Romania’s Black Sea waters. The Neptun Deep project, located off Romania’s coast at depths ranging from 100 to 1,700 meters, holds an estimated 100 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas, positioning it as one of the EU’s largest natural gas reserves. Production is expected to begin in 2027.
Once operational, Neptun Deep will make Romania the largest gas producer in the EU and a net exporter of gas for the first time. Romania’s offshore gas reserves, estimated at around 200 bcm, will significantly diversify the region’s energy supply. George Scutaru, director of the New Strategy Center, a Romanian think tank, estimates that Neptun Deep will produce between seven and eight bcm annually, generating potential revenues exceeding $25 billion—equivalent to three and a half years of Romania’s current defense spending.
The potential for increased domestic production is also promising. While Romania already meets about 80% of its gas needs from domestic production, Neptun Deep, along with the existing Ana gas field, is expected to cover the country’s annual consumption of about 12 bcm. The country’s newfound production capacity could allow it to export surplus gas to neighboring countries, replacing their Russian imports. Romania has already taken steps to replace Moldova’s gas imports from Russia, and Black Sea gas could help reduce regional dependence on the TurkStream pipeline, which delivers Russian gas to Eastern European nations. For example, Moldova consumes 2.9 bcm annually, Bulgaria consumes 3 bcm, and Serbia consumes 2.4 bcm.
However, the outlook is not without risks. Russia is likely to oppose Romania’s offshore gas projects, as it has previously used hybrid warfare tactics in the Black Sea region, especially since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, which brought Russia’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) closer to Romania’s. As Arnold C. Dupuy notes, it remains unclear whether offshore gas facilities in Romania’s EEZ would benefit from NATO Article 5 or Article 6 protection, leaving the door open for potential interference from the Kremlin. This presents a significant security concern for Romania as it moves forward with its ambitious energy plans.
