Azerbaijan is withholding a final investment decision on expanding the Southern Gas Corridor until European buyers provide firmer long-term purchase commitments and financing becomes clearer. The decision is linked to how much gas demand can be secured in Europe before additional capacity is developed.
EU import target and current delivery volumes
The proposed expansion is intended to support an EU goal of importing at least 20 billion cubic metres annually by 2027. Deliveries reached about 11.3 billion cubic metres in 2025, compared with 8.1 billion cubic metres in 2021. Despite the rise, volumes remain below the stated objective.
Capacity options for TANAP, TAP and the South Caucasus Pipeline
One set of options involves increasing TANAP capacity from 16.2 billion cubic metres to 31.7 billion cubic metres per year. TAP could be raised from 10.5 billion cubic metres to 23.3 billion cubic metres annually. The South Caucasus Pipeline could expand from 24 billion cubic metres to 33.6 billion cubic metres.
A full expansion is estimated to require about five years. That timeline makes the timing of commercial commitments a key factor for moving forward with the project.
Route through Georgia, Turkey and entry points in Europe
The corridor supplies Europe via Georgia and Turkey, with gas entering Greece, Albania and Italy. Additional deliveries can reach Bulgaria and neighbouring markets through the Greece–Bulgaria interconnector.
Contract length considerations for European buyers
For European buyers, securing more Azerbaijani gas now depends on accepting longer contractual commitments. The need for such commitments is set against the EU’s pursuit of lower fossil-fuel consumption.
