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Serbia: SEEPEX July trading reveals solar-driven shift from daytime peaks to evening scarcity

Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead electricity market recorded lower trading volumes in July, while prices increased and annual liquidity continued to strengthen. The decline in traded energy reflected changing market conditions rather than weaker long-term development, as year-on-year turnover remained higher and the exchange continued to expand its role in Serbia’s short-term power market.

A total of 502,334 MWh was traded during July, representing an 11.7 per cent decline compared with June. Average daily trading volume reached 16,204.3 MWh, while total monthly turnover remained 4.3 per cent above July 2025 levels, confirming continued year-on-year market growth.

The average day-ahead baseload price increased by 8.7 per cent month on month to €109.43/MWh. The average peak price also rose, increasing by 7.9 per cent to €86.38/MWh.

The unusually wide discount of the peak product compared with the baseload price highlights the structural changes taking place in Serbia’s electricity market and the wider Southeast European region. Strong solar generation is increasingly pushing prices lower during traditional daytime peak hours, while the most expensive periods are shifting towards the evening after sunset, when solar output declines and flexible generation becomes more valuable.

This changing price pattern reduces the effectiveness of traditional baseload and peak contracts for consumers with significant evening electricity demand. At the same time, it increases the commercial importance of battery storage systems, flexible hydropower, demand-response solutions and gas-fired generation capable of responding quickly to the solar production decline.

SEEPEX’s intraday market remained considerably smaller than the day-ahead segment. July intraday trading volume reached 3,784.4 MWh, with an average price of €66.42/MWh. Intraday turnover represented less than 1 per cent of day-ahead trading volume, indicating that liquidity remains limited for market participants seeking to adjust their positions closer to the delivery period.

SEEPEX began operations on 17 February 2016 and launched its intraday market in July 2023. The exchange is jointly owned by Serbia’s transmission system operator EMS and EPEX SPOT.

July data confirm continued development of Serbia’s electricity market, but they also highlight the still limited depth of short-term trading activity. Future liquidity growth will depend on broader market participation, stronger market coupling, increasing renewable balancing needs and the availability of additional cross-border transmission capacity with neighbouring price zones.

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