Romania is moving closer to the physical limits of its electricity import capacity as domestic generation weakens and regional power markets tighten. The situation became more critical after another 285 MW coal-fired unit went offline, increasing the country’s exposure to electricity shortages during evening demand peaks.
Romanian power generation fell to around 2.9 GW on the evening of October 3, while instantaneous imports approached 3.4 GW. This meant Romania was importing more electricity than it was producing domestically, with cross-border inflows coming within roughly 600 MW of Transelectrica’s estimated maximum import capability of around 4 GW.
The supply balance tightened further on October 5 when Unit 5 at the Turceni lignite power plant tripped following a boiler failure. The 285 MW unit, which was Turceni’s only operational block at the time, is provisionally expected to return to service on October 10. Romanian coal-fired generation subsequently fell below 350 MW.
The outage comes as the Romanian power system is already facing several constraints. Nuclear availability remains limited, hydropower output is weak and solar generation declines rapidly as evening demand rises. Wind production has also remained volatile, making it more difficult for domestic generation to consistently cover peak demand.
As a result, Romania is becoming increasingly dependent on electricity imports from Bulgaria, Hungary and other neighbouring markets when renewable generation falls. Imports provide an important buffer for the system, but their effectiveness depends on available cross-border transmission capacity as well as sufficient generation in neighbouring countries.
The pressure is also reflected in regional electricity prices, which have risen above €200/MWh, indicating tighter supply conditions across Southeast Europe. This means Romania cannot rely solely on the availability of neighbouring power markets to cover any potential domestic shortfall.
Romania’s immediate risk is therefore not necessarily a lack of electricity throughout the entire day, but whether sufficient power can be imported during a narrow window of evening peak hours, when domestic generation is at its lowest and regional demand is at its highest.
The Turceni outage further reduces that margin, leaving Romania with less flexibility to manage evening demand peaks and increasing its dependence on regional electricity markets until additional domestic generation becomes available.
