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Romania’s Cernavoda outage raises winter electricity cost exposure

Romania is facing continued pressure on electricity supply costs as both Cernavoda nuclear units remain offline without a firm restart timetable. With the nuclear capacity unavailable, the system is relying more heavily on other generation sources through the winter period. The situation is also linked to expectations around costs in the months ahead.

Grid stability supported by hydro, thermal and renewables

The electricity system has remained stable, with Hidroelectrica increasing production during peak-demand periods. Energy Complex Oltenia has continued to supply power despite ageing equipment and technical constraints. Wind and solar generation have also contributed to covering the shortfall.

Transelectrica and the National Energy Dispatch Centre have maintained system balance during the outage period. The regulator ANRE has accelerated final approvals for additional generating capacity. Together, these measures have supported operational continuity while nuclear output stays offline.

Sensitive 10-day window and price risks tied to restart timing

Energy Ministry State Secretary Cristian Busoi identified the coming 10 days as particularly sensitive. A prolonged shutdown would increase the risk of higher electricity prices in the months ahead. The exposure is connected to how long replacement generation is needed.

Expensive European gas adds to that pressure, as replacing nuclear output with fuel-sensitive generation can raise supply costs even when sufficient capacity remains available. Officials are preparing for the possibility of elevated prices through winter and into spring 2027. The decisive variable is the restart schedule, with every extension prolonging dependence on replacement generation and external supply.

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