Serbian day-ahead electricity prices fell for October 8 delivery, while Hungary, Bulgaria and Montenegro recorded increases, widening regional price differences and keeping electricity costs elevated across southeastern Europe despite forecasts for stronger renewable generation.
Hungary’s HUPX price rose €3.50 to €214.28/MWh, while its premium over Germany widened sharply to €74.93/MWh. German prices fell €52.70 to €139.35/MWh, showing that the steep decline in Western European prices did not translate into similar relief across southeastern markets.
Serbia recorded the region’s largest daily decline, with SEEPEX falling €18.60 to €179.39/MWh, or around 9.4%. Serbian electricity therefore traded €34.89/MWh below Hungary and €29.41/MWh below Montenegro, creating a significant potential incentive for cross-border flows where transmission capacity was available.
However, Serbia’s lower market price did not necessarily indicate an export surplus. The country was still reporting average imports of 988 MW, illustrating that a market can remain dependent on imports while clearing below neighbouring exchanges. Actual trading opportunities also depend on hourly price differences, available transmission capacity and transaction costs.
Montenegro moved higher, with BELEN increasing €11.40 to €208.80/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM price edged up €0.70 to €209.45/MWh, while Bulgaria’s IBEX increased €9.80 to €208.40/MWh. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Montenegro consequently remained closely grouped above €208/MWh.
Albania recorded the highest price in southeastern Europe at €221.53/MWh, following a €9.40 increase. Greece remained the cheapest market at €165.25/MWh, followed by North Macedonia at €167.78/MWh. The resulting Albania-Greece spread reached €56.28/MWh, underlining the potential value of available cross-border transmission capacity.
Croatia and Slovenia moved lower, with CROPEX at €200.81/MWh and BSP at €197.10/MWh, down €3.50 and €5.10 respectively. Italy also declined slightly to €218.84/MWh, maintaining a premium of around €10/MWh over Montenegro.
Regional fundamentals pointed to stronger renewable generation alongside moderately higher demand. Forecast average consumption increased by 284 MW to 29,944 MW, while solar generation was expected to rise by 470 MW to 6,118 MW. Wind generation was forecast to increase by 959 MW to 2,319 MW.
Combined wind and solar output was therefore expected to rise by around 1.43 GW, significantly more than the projected increase in consumption. At the same time, net regional imports fell 466 MW to 2,004 MW, while imports through the Austria-Slovakia corridor into Hungary and Slovenia declined by 542 MW to 1,528 MW.
The combination of lower imports and a wider Hungarian premium remains notable, although the available figures do not by themselves determine whether the divergence was driven by transmission constraints, changes in generation availability or hourly market conditions.
Forward markets also pointed to higher prices ahead. Hungarian week-42 power increased €14 to €216/MWh, while November power rose €7 to €219.50/MWh. The November Hungary-Germany spread widened by €2 to €42/MWh, suggesting that the regional premium was extending beyond the immediate delivery day.
Gas and carbon prices added further pressure on thermal generation costs. Austrian CEGH gas rose €1.10 to €78.93/MWh, while November gas increased €2.50 to €79.50/MWh. EU carbon allowances also gained €0.50 to €85.25/t.
For traders and industrial consumers, the main signal was the uneven distribution of price movements across the region. Serbia’s decline improved its relative position, but prices above €208/MWh in several neighbouring markets, combined with stronger Hungarian forward prices, continued to point to elevated replacement power costs as winter contracting approaches.
