Southeast European electricity prices rose sharply for 9 October delivery, with Hungary reaching €269.43/MWh and Serbia recording the largest daily increase among the markets covered, as falling wind generation and nuclear outages increased the region’s reliance on imports.
The rally widened Hungary’s premium over Germany to €190.86/MWh, from roughly €74.9/MWh a day earlier. German electricity fell while most Southeast European markets advanced, highlighting the growing cost of securing supply in the region despite higher imports from Central Europe.
Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead average climbed €60.6/MWh to €239.96/MWh, an increase of approximately 34%. Hungary gained €55.2/MWh, or nearly 26%, while Romania rose €45.8/MWh to €255.20/MWh and Bulgaria added €33.1/MWh to €241.49/MWh.
The supply balance points to a stronger influence from generation availability than from demand. Forecast consumption across the report’s regional coverage increased by only 118 MW to 30,187 MW, while expected wind output fell 1,354 MW to 1,376 MW, almost halving from the previous day.
Solar generation was forecast to rise 319 MW to 5,339 MW, offsetting less than a quarter of the wind decline. Combined wind and solar output therefore fell by approximately 1,035 MW.
Regional net imports increased 1,523 MW to 4,247 MW, lifting their contribution to forecast consumption to about 14%, from 9% a day earlier. Imports through the monitored Austria–Slovakia routes into Hungary and Slovenia rose 1,307 MW to 3,555 MW.
Higher imports nevertheless coincided with a much wider Hungarian premium. The combination indicates that additional cross-border supply did not eliminate the regional price gap, although daily averages alone cannot establish which transmission constraints were binding.
Nuclear availability added to the pressure. Romania’s Cernavoda plant was reported to have both reactors unavailable, with the outage expected to continue until at least 15 October and any restart dependent on Danube conditions.
In Bulgaria, Kozloduy unit 6 entered annual maintenance scheduled to last until the end of November. The remaining reactor, unit 5, was operating at around 917 MW gross, with available output also affected by low river levels. Across the report’s regional generation coverage, nuclear production had already fallen 645 MW to 3,216 MW on 8 October.
Montenegro’s BELEN average increased €14.6/MWh to €223.39/MWh, a more moderate rise than Serbia’s. Croatia gained €22.1/MWh to €222.92/MWh, while Slovenia advanced €14.6/MWh to €211.73/MWh.
Greece rose €42.7/MWh to €207.93/MWh, and North Macedonia increased €42.4/MWh to €210.14/MWh.
Albania moved in the opposite direction, falling €111/MWh to €110.53/MWh, roughly half the previous day’s level. Its discount to Hungary widened to nearly €159/MWh, illustrating the scale of price differences within Southeast Europe. Those differences create potential trading opportunities, but their commercial value depends on available transmission capacity and delivery costs.
Forward prices also strengthened. Hungarian week-42 power rose €19/MWh to €235/MWh, week 43 gained €14/MWh to €223/MWh, and November increased €7.5/MWh to €227/MWh. The November Hungary–Germany spread widened to €45.50/MWh.
Fuel costs provided additional support: Austrian CEGH gas increased to €80.78/MWh, while EU carbon allowances rose to €86.88 per tonne.
For buyers, the immediate exposure is the combination of weaker wind output, restricted nuclear availability and expensive replacement supply. For generators and storage investors, the sharp price movements strengthen the value of dependable output and flexibility, although investment returns still depend on hourly prices and operating constraints.
The decisive signal was the region’s need for substantially more imported electricity despite almost unchanged demand. Until wind generation recovers or nuclear capacity returns, Southeast European buyers remain exposed to another expensive replacement megawatt-hour.
