Southeast Europe entered the second week of June with a market pattern that will look familiar to traders, utilities and industrial buyers this summer: demand moved higher, but prices still softened because renewable generation grew faster than consumption. Regional electricity demand reached 15.85 TWh in Week 24, an increase of 692.9 GWh or 4.6% from the previous week, yet most day-ahead markets closed lower.
The price correction was broad. Serbia recorded the sharpest fall, with the weekly average price dropping 21.5% to €78.22/MWh. Bulgaria fell 7.2%, Croatia 7.3%, Romania 4.7%, Hungary 4.3% and Italy 3.8%. Greece was the exception, rising 2.6% to €91.53/MWh, while Italy remained the clear premium market at €123.17/MWh.
The main balancing force was renewable output. Variable renewable generation across the region rose to 3.64 TWh, up 518.6 GWh or 16.6% week on week. Wind generation increased by 308.4 GWh to 1.40 TWh, while solar rose by 210.2 GWh to 2.23 TWh. That extra renewable supply was enough to cap the price impact from rising cooling demand and stronger summer consumption.
The weaker part of the system was hydro. Regional hydropower generation fell by 300.2 GWh, or 7.5%, to 3.70 TWh, forcing more thermal generation back into the dispatch stack. Thermal output increased by 362.6 GWh, or 8.7%, to 4.52 TWh, with coal and lignite rising 24.4% to 2.14 TWh.
The week’s market signal is therefore not a simple bearish story. Prices eased, but the system became more dependent on thermal balancing where hydro weakened. For traders, this creates a more volatile summer structure: solar and wind can soften daytime prices, while hydro shortages and evening load can keep thermal plants close to the margin.
