Electricity prices in Serbia and Montenegro rose sharply for Tuesday delivery, moving against declines in Hungary and Romania as southeastern Europe’s reliance on imports increased despite stronger solar generation. The divergence highlights tighter local supply conditions in parts of the region, even as overall demand remained broadly stable.
Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead price increased by €26.8/MWh to €196.49/MWh, while Montenegro’s BELEN price rose €22.1/MWh to €232.03/MWh. Montenegro’s premium over Serbia consequently widened to €35.54/MWh, reflecting differing supply and market conditions between the two neighbouring countries.
Hungary’s HUPX price fell €7.9/MWh to €224.81/MWh, while Romania’s OPCOM declined €5.7/MWh to €222.73/MWh. Serbia therefore remained €28.32/MWh below Hungary, while Montenegro traded €7.22/MWh above the Hungarian benchmark.
Germany recorded the sharpest move among the major regional benchmarks, with its day-ahead price rising €45.1/MWh to €201.70/MWh. As a result, Hungary’s premium over Germany narrowed by around €53/MWh to €23.11/MWh. The convergence was driven primarily by Germany’s price increase rather than by a broad decline in southeastern European prices.
Southern European markets also showed divergent price movements. Albania’s price dropped €37.6/MWh to €239.50/MWh but remained the most expensive market in the reported SEE group. North Macedonia rose €36.9/MWh to €182.32/MWh, while Greece increased €17.9/MWh to €167.42/MWh, maintaining the lowest daily average among the markets covered.
The spread between Albania and Greece reached €72.08/MWh, creating a potentially significant incentive for cross-border trading. However, daily average price differences alone do not confirm that sufficient transmission capacity was available or that market participants could capture the entire theoretical spread.
Bulgaria’s price increased €3.6/MWh to €207.38/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia posted smaller gains, reaching €220.09/MWh and €221.06/MWh, respectively. Italy recorded a €23.2/MWh increase to €233.27/MWh, leaving Montenegro just €1.24/MWh below the Italian benchmark.
The regional supply balance pointed to a relatively stable demand environment but greater dependence on imports. Forecast consumption across the report’s Hungary and SEE aggregate increased by 33 MW to 29,143 MW, while net imports rose by approximately 309 MW to 2,049 MW, equivalent to around 7% of total demand.
Renewable generation also shifted significantly. Forecast solar output increased by 857 MW to 6,719 MW, while wind generation declined by 587 MW to 1,288 MW. The combined renewable increase of around 270 MW nevertheless coincided with a higher import requirement, suggesting that stronger solar production was not sufficient to eliminate the need for additional external supply.
Average net inflows through the Austria-Slovakia corridor eased by 20 MW to 1,455 MW. Country-level balances showed Romania importing 1,514 MW, Croatia 1,091 MW and Serbia 773 MW, while Bulgaria exported 1,498 MW and Greece 655 MW. These figures represent physical power flows rather than exchange trading volumes.
Forward markets continued to signal a persistent Hungarian premium, despite the narrower spot-market differential. Hungarian week-42 power fell €2/MWh to €201/MWh, although its premium over Germany widened by €11/MWh to €56.50/MWh. The November Hungarian contract rose €1/MWh to €209/MWh, with the corresponding German spread widening to €40/MWh.
Gas prices remained elevated, with the Austrian CEGH quotation at €75.51/MWh and the Greek quotation at €67.50/MWh. Carbon allowances stood at €83.87/t, continuing to represent a substantial cost burden for fossil-fuel generation.
For electricity buyers in Serbia and Montenegro, the immediate market signal was higher procurement costs despite relatively stable regional demand and stronger solar generation. Hungary’s lower spot benchmark provided limited relief, as local prices increased, import requirements rose and forward markets continued to price in a sizeable regional premium.
