Week 23 highlighted continued fragmentation in electricity pricing across Southeast Europe and nearby markets. Italy averaged €128.09/MWh, while Hungary was at €103.15/MWh. Romania averaged €102.23/MWh, Bulgaria €100.83/MWh, Serbia €99.63/MWh, Croatia €99.29/MWh, Greece €89.25/MWh and Türkiye €22.53/MWh.
Thermal output rises while variable renewables weaken
Alongside price dispersion, the generation mix shifted toward dispatchable conventional output. Thermal generation increased by 24.5% week on week, while variable renewable generation fell by 8.9%. In Türkiye, gas-fired generation rose by 278.1%, and Greece increased lignite output by 66.2%.
This shift affects embedded emissions profiles used in industrial calculations. Electricity sourced from systems with higher fossil dispatch can carry a different carbon profile than electricity backed by renewable PPAs or documented green supply.
CBAM increases demand for electricity documentation
The EU CBAM framework raises the importance of credible electricity documentation for exporters selling into the region’s key demand markets. Exporters need to account for not only direct emissions, but also the electricity basis used in embedded-emissions calculations where applicable. Annual procurement claims may be insufficient if buyers, declarants or verifiers require stronger evidence of renewable sourcing, hourly matching or contract credibility.
Green PPAs and storage options for procurement portfolios
A renewable PPA can reduce price exposure and support decarbonisation claims while improving buyer confidence when structured with supporting evidence. The industrial buyer needs documentation covering generation source, grid connection, metering, guarantees of origin or equivalent certificates, balancing responsibility and delivery profile.
Battery-backed renewable procurement is another option referenced for improving alignment between renewable generation and industrial consumption. Storage can reduce reliance on fossil-heavy evening power and strengthen the credibility of green electricity claims as part of a wider CBAM-ready procurement strategy.
Spot-market exposure remains a risk factor
Week 23 also underscored the risks of relying only on spot market purchases for day-ahead exposure. Industrial buyers facing volatile day-ahead prices may see sudden cost increases when gas prices rise, renewables fall or imports tighten.
A structured procurement approach combining PPAs, hedges, guarantees of origin and flexible consumption is described as a way to reduce both price and carbon risk for CBAM-exposed sectors.
Electricity sourcing becomes part of market access
For SEE exporters, electricity strategy is increasingly linked to market access requirements from EU buyers. Buyers are expected to ask how electricity was sourced, how emissions were calculated and whether low-carbon claims are auditable.
In this context, power-market volatility feeds into CBAM readiness for electricity-intensive industries including steel, aluminium, cement, fertiliser and chemicals.
Elevated by energy.clarion.engineer
