Hungary, Romania and Croatia formed the tightening cluster of SEE in Week 25. Their price increases were among the strongest in the region, with Hungary rising 10.6% to €109.16/MWh, Romania up 7.7% to €104.84/MWh, and Croatia up 11.2% to €102.36/MWh. This was not a random weekly move. It showed how these markets are increasingly tied to Central European scarcity, cross-border coupling and evening ramp pressure.
Hungary’s position is particularly important because it often acts as a bridge between Central Europe and the Balkans. When Austrian, Slovak, Czech or German prices strengthen, Hungary tends to absorb part of that regional repricing. In Week 25, Western and Central Europe also moved higher, with sharp increases in France, Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Belgium and the Netherlands. Hungary therefore sat at the intersection of SEE fundamentals and wider continental tightness.
Romania’s increase reflected a more difficult domestic balance. Demand declined slightly, but hydropower generation fell by 9.8%, reducing one of Romania’s key flexibility buffers. This helped lift the market even without strong domestic demand growth. Romania also reduced net imports by 19.1%, but the price still rose, suggesting scarcity was transmitted through the regional market structure and not only through physical import dependency.
Croatia’s rise was linked to higher demand and weaker renewable production. Consumption increased by 9.7%, one of the strongest demand gains in the region. At the same time, renewable output weakened because of lower wind generation. Croatia increased net imports by 26.0%, making it more exposed to higher-priced neighbouring markets and evening scarcity.
The common feature across all three markets is that they are becoming less insulated. Their prices reflect domestic fundamentals, but also the cost of flexibility in adjacent systems. Solar growth alone cannot stabilise them without storage, dispatchable capacity or stronger interconnection management.
For traders, this cluster offers the cleanest signal for spread strategy. Hungary, Romania and Croatia are not the cheapest markets, nor are they as structurally premium as Italy. They are the markets where regional coupling, weather shifts and cross-border availability can create fast weekly repricing. Week 25 confirmed their role as the region’s marginal volatility zone.
