Day-ahead electricity prices rose sharply across Hungary and much of southeastern Europe on Tuesday, as colder weather increased demand, renewable generation weakened and electricity imports from Austria and Slovakia declined.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price climbed €45.20 to €233.90/MWh, the highest level among the monitored markets. Romania followed at €231.74/MWh, up €48.50, while prices in Croatia and Slovenia increased by €69.40 and €75.30 respectively, reaching €225.27/MWh and €223.46/MWh.
The price surge came as regional temperatures fell by around 5 degrees Celsius, pushing forecast electricity consumption up by 952 MW to 29,382 MW. At the same time, expected solar generation dropped by 207 MW to 4,957 MW, while wind output declined by 213 MW to 2,266 MW, further tightening the regional supply-demand balance.
The pressure was compounded by a sharp reduction in electricity flows from Austria and Slovakia. Core imports into Hungary and neighboring SEE markets fell by 1,425 MW to 1,502 MW. Total regional net imports declined by a smaller 306 MW to 1,684 MW, partly offset by changes in cross-border flows from Italy, which shifted by more than 1 GW compared with the previous day.
Germany also recorded a significant price increase, with its day-ahead contract jumping €129.60 to €226.18/MWh. As a result, Hungary’s recent premium over the German market almost disappeared, with the HU-DE spread narrowing to €7.73/MWh from €92.10/MWh a day earlier.
Eastern SEE markets also remained expensive, although they traded below Hungary. Bulgaria settled at €211.73/MWh and Greece at €211.76/MWh, both around €22/MWh below HUPX. Romania was only €2.16/MWh cheaper than Hungary, pointing to tighter conditions across the coupled Hungarian-Romanian market area.
Western Balkan markets remained significantly cheaper. Serbia’s SEEPEX price increased €30.10 to €177.82/MWh, but remained €56.08/MWh below Hungary. Albania reached €180.83/MWh, while Montenegro eased to €161.31/MWh and North Macedonia fell to €151.10/MWh, the lowest level among the monitored markets.
The price gap between Hungary and North Macedonia widened to almost €83/MWh, highlighting continued fragmentation across the SEE electricity market despite the broader increase in demand. Bulgaria remained a major regional exporter, while Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Croatia and Greece continued to record net-import positions.
Forward electricity markets did not fully reflect the sharp day-ahead increase. Hungary’s week-40 contract fell €14 to €183.50/MWh, while week 41 declined to €197/MWh. The October contract dropped €10 to €198/MWh, while the Hungarian calendar-2026 contract eased €4 to €149.50/MWh.
Fuel markets also moved lower. Austrian CEGH gas fell €3.50 to €76.45/MWh, while Greek gas declined €2.90 to €57.14/MWh. October and fourth-quarter gas contracts both dropped €6.50 to €74.50/MWh. EU carbon allowances edged down to €86.59 a tonne, while October coal slipped to $134.50 a tonne.
The combination of lower fuel costs and weaker forward electricity prices suggests that traders see Tuesday’s spot-market surge primarily as a short-term weather and cross-border supply shock. Near-term market risk remains concentrated in the evening hours, when colder temperatures, reduced solar generation and limited access to cheaper Central European imports could once again widen price premiums in Hungary, Romania and northern SEE markets.
