Electricity prices across Southeast Europe rose sharply on Monday, October 12, as demand recovered after the weekend and forecast wind generation declined. Serbian day-ahead prices climbed above €230/MWh, while Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria approached €235/MWh, increasing procurement costs for electricity suppliers and industrial consumers.
Forward markets also signalled expectations of sustained price pressure, with Hungary’s week 42 electricity contract reaching €244.50/MWh and week 43 trading close behind at €244/MWh.
Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead average increased by €45.20/MWh to €230.76/MWh, placing it just €4.12/MWh below Hungary. Montenegro’s BELEN benchmark rose by €43.10/MWh to €208.46/MWh, maintaining a €26.42/MWh discount to the Hungarian market.
The two markets therefore entered the working week with significantly different purchasing conditions. Serbia traded close to the region’s most expensive electricity exchanges, while Montenegro remained comparatively cheaper despite its substantial daily increase.
Bulgaria recorded the highest average price among the main regional markets, with IBEX rising by €60.30/MWh to €235.50/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM benchmark increased by €59.20/MWh to €235.29/MWh, while Hungary’s HUPX reached €234.88/MWh following a €48.80/MWh increase.
The three markets were separated by less than €1/MWh, indicating a closely aligned regional price level. Under these conditions, the profitability of cross-border electricity trading depends increasingly on hourly price differences, available transmission capacity and transaction costs rather than daily averages alone.
Prices also strengthened across other Southeast European markets. Croatia rose by €53.30/MWh to €226.98/MWh, while Slovenia increased by the same amount to €224.94/MWh. Greece gained €58.90/MWh to reach €218.04/MWh, and Albania climbed to €222.35/MWh. North Macedonia remained the least expensive market in the comparison at €198.47/MWh, despite a daily increase of €7.60/MWh.
The broad-based increase reflected a less favourable supply-demand balance, driven by higher consumption and a significant decline in forecast wind generation.
Forecast average demand across the report’s Hungary and Southeast European coverage increased by 3,605 MW to 30,588 MW, approximately 13.4% above Sunday’s level. At the same time, forecast wind generation fell by 2,358 MW to 1,397 MW, representing a decline of nearly 63%.
Higher solar production offered partial relief. Forecast solar output increased by 1,219 MW to 4,379 MW, but the combined contribution of wind and solar still declined by approximately 1,139 MW. Assuming the forecasts materialised, the increase in demand and reduction in renewable generation implied a need for around 4,744 MW of additional supply from other generation sources or imports compared with Sunday.
Regional net imports increased by only 300 MW to 3,719 MW. Imports through the monitored Austria–Slovakia routes into Hungary and Slovenia rose by 395 MW to 3,140 MW. These figures suggest that additional imports alone did not fully compensate for the change in demand and renewable availability, increasing the importance of other generation sources.
The price rally extended beyond Southeast Europe. Germany’s day-ahead average increased by €74.90/MWh to €197.23/MWh, a larger absolute rise than Hungary recorded. Consequently, Hungary’s premium over Germany narrowed by €26.10/MWh to €37.65/MWh, even as Hungarian electricity prices increased substantially.
This distinction is important for market participants because higher absolute prices do not necessarily indicate widening regional price premiums or greater congestion. Daily averages show that the Hungary–Germany price differential narrowed, although they do not establish the conditions on individual interconnectors or during specific trading hours.
Forward contracts, meanwhile, pointed to a stronger regional premium over Germany. Hungary’s week 42 spread widened to €75.50/MWh, while the week 43 spread reached €70/MWh. Hungarian November electricity prices increased by €4.50/MWh to €231.50/MWh, reinforcing expectations of continued pressure in the coming weeks.
Gas and carbon markets added to the cost considerations facing electricity generators. Austrian CEGH gas traded at €80.80/MWh, while November gas prices rose by €2.50/MWh to €83/MWh. Carbon allowances remained unchanged at €86.94 per tonne.
For Serbian electricity buyers, the latest session highlights the risk of higher procurement costs when working-day demand returns and wind generation weakens. Serbia’s day-ahead benchmark moved close to prices in Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria, while Montenegro retained a substantial discount.
The key risk for regional buyers is the combination of rising demand, reduced wind availability and limited import flexibility. Although solar generation helped offset part of the shortfall, the scale of Monday’s price increases demonstrated how quickly the regional electricity market can tighten when renewable output falls short of expectations.
