Greece and Bulgaria moved against the broader SEE trend in Week 25, becoming the region’s most important price moderators after Türkiye. While Hungary, Serbia, Croatia, Romania and Italy moved higher, Greece fell by 6.6% to €85.50/MWh and Bulgaria declined by 6.4% to €87.58/MWh. Their lower price levels reflected a more comfortable domestic generation balance and stronger export capability.
The contrast was sharp. Greece recorded one of the strongest renewable improvements in the region, with variable renewable output rising by 18.2%. Wind output increased by 37.5% and solar by 11.4%, giving the Greek system a stronger low-marginal-cost supply base during the week. That helped keep prices below the more tightly coupled Central European-facing markets.
Bulgaria showed a different but equally relevant pattern. Solar production strengthened enough to offset weaker wind, while the country deepened its net export position. Bulgarian net exports rose by 91.8%, confirming its role as a supplier into the regional balance. Even with hydropower down sharply by 39.4%, Bulgaria still managed to post a lower weekly price, suggesting that the market had enough competitive generation during key hours to resist the broader upward pressure.
This matters for regional trading because Greece and Bulgaria are not just domestic markets. They are balancing reference points for the southern and eastern SEE corridor. When they remain cheaper than Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Italy, they create potential export flows and spread opportunities. The value depends on interconnection capacity, congestion and hourly timing, but the commercial direction is clear.
Their performance also shows that renewable growth does not produce one single regional outcome. In markets where renewables align with demand and export capacity, prices can soften. In markets where solar creates midday surplus but evening scarcity remains unresolved, prices can still rise. Greece and Bulgaria sat closer to the first category during Week 25.
For buyers, the message is that procurement geography matters. For traders, the Greece-Bulgaria price pocket offers a natural hedge against tighter Central European-linked markets. For investors, the two markets reinforce the case for combining renewables with export strategy, storage and cross-border optimisation.
