Hungarian electricity prices for Monday delivery surged as weekday demand recovered and wind generation declined, creating a high-price zone across Central Europe and widening price spreads with the southern Balkans.
The HUPX baseload power price rose by €88.80/MWh from Sunday to €250.97/MWh. This was the highest price in Southeast Europe and just €5.58/MWh below Germany’s price of €256.55/MWh.
Slovenia and Croatia followed the Central European market, with prices of €246.31/MWh and €245.36/MWh, respectively, while Austria traded at €246.98/MWh. Romania was somewhat cheaper, at €237.61/MWh.
The price surge reflected a sharp deterioration in the regional supply-demand balance. Electricity demand across Hungary and Southeast Europe was expected to increase by 3.64 GW to 29.69 GW as markets returned to normal weekday operations following the weekend. At the same time, forecast wind generation was set to fall by 1.13 GW to 2.04 GW.
Forecast solar generation increased by 778 MW to 5.95 GW, but the additional midday output was insufficient to offset stronger demand and lower wind generation, particularly after sunset.
The strongest price pressure emerged during the evening hours. HUPX reached €619.70/MWh in hour 20, while the daily minimum stood at €161.70/MWh. Germany reached a peak of €697.30/MWh, while Slovenian and Croatian prices approached €600/MWh.
Romania recorded an evening peak of €615.80/MWh, confirming that the period of tight supply had extended into the northern part of the region.
Further south, prices also rose significantly, but less sharply. The baseload price on Serbia’s SEEPEX market increased by €76.70/MWh to €199.44/MWh, remaining €51.53/MWh below HUPX.
Albania traded at €204.75/MWh, Bulgaria at €193.13/MWh and Greece at €186.76/MWh. Montenegro and North Macedonia recorded the lowest prices in the region, at €179.97/MWh and €179.60/MWh, respectively, around €71/MWh below HUPX.
The market was therefore divided into three broad price zones: Germany, Hungary, Austria, Slovenia and Croatia above €245/MWh; Italy and Romania in the €226–238/MWh range; and most of the southern Balkans between €180/MWh and €205/MWh.
This divergence pointed to limited cross-border transmission capacity. Cheaper generation in the Balkans could not reach Hungary and the northern Adriatic markets in sufficient volumes to narrow the price spreads.
Romania exported an average of 1.62 GW of electricity to Hungary, with exports reaching 2.25 GW during peak hours. At the same time, it imported around 1.82 GW from Bulgaria. This further highlighted Romania’s role as a transit market between lower-cost Bulgarian generation and the tighter Hungarian system.
Serbia also shifted to exports towards Hungary, averaging 233 MW during the day and reaching 369 MW during peak hours. However, available capacity was insufficient to close the price gap of more than €50/MWh between SEEPEX and HUPX.
Serbian electricity demand was forecast at 3.33 GW, around 329 MW higher than on Sunday. Generation recovered even more strongly, increasing by around 819 MW to 3.05 GW, reducing net imports to 276 MW from 766 MW a day earlier.
Serbia continued to import electricity from Bulgaria and North Macedonia while exporting towards Hungary. The peak-load price reached €214.10/MWh, compared with an average of €184.80/MWh during off-peak hours, highlighting the greater value of flexible capacity during the evening demand increase.
Montenegro remained a moderate net importer, at 47 MW, with consumption of 361 MW and domestic generation of 314 MW. No scheduled commercial flow was recorded over the Montenegro–Italy interconnector despite Italy’s national price of €225.85/MWh, almost €46/MWh higher than Montenegro’s price.
Albania reduced its net imports to 272 MW, from 554 MW, after domestic generation more than doubled to 566 MW. Nevertheless, its day-ahead price increased by €58/MWh.
Electricity prices continued to be influenced by developments in fuel markets. Gas prices at Austria’s CEGH rose slightly to €81.95/MWh, while Greek gas remained at €63/MWh. EU carbon allowances held at €85.52/t, keeping generation costs for gas-fired and coal-fired power plants at elevated levels.
Hungarian forward prices nevertheless declined. The price for week 38 fell by €4/MWh to €179/MWh, while the week 39 contract dropped to €184.50/MWh. The October contract declined to €196/MWh.
The decline in forward prices suggests that traders largely viewed Monday’s spot-price surge as a short-term combination of lower wind generation, recovering demand and evening tightness. However, Hungary’s €33/MWh premium over Germany for October indicates that congestion and regional supply risks remain embedded in market prices.
For electricity traders, the key signal was not only the rise in absolute prices but also the return of large north-south price spreads. While electricity remained available at below €200/MWh across much of the southern Balkans, Hungary approached €251/MWh. The value of this price spread depended heavily on the ability to secure limited cross-border transmission capacity.
