Day-ahead electricity prices fell across most Southeast European markets for Friday delivery, led by Serbia and Greece, as stronger solar and wind forecasts outweighed lower regional imports and broadly flat consumption, while the price gap between Hungary and Germany widened sharply.
Hungary’s HUPX base price fell €16.8/MWh on the day to €179.78/MWh, while Romania dropped €20.9 to €175.92, Bulgaria lost €23.9 to €169.02 and Greece declined €33.3 to €159.57. Serbia recorded the lowest price among the main SEE markets at €149.76/MWh, down €35.2, leaving SEEPEX at a €30.02/MWh discount to HUPX.
Slovenia and Croatia converged close to €169/MWh, while Montenegro traded at €176.41 and North Macedonia at €156.42. Albania was the main exception to the regional decline, rising €7.9 to €181.57/MWh, slightly above Hungary. Italy remained the most expensive adjacent market at €211.17/MWh, while Germany fell sharply to €88.95/MWh.
The move widened the HUPX-Germany day-ahead spread to €90.82/MWh, up almost €28/MWh from the previous session. Hungary also retained a €20.21/MWh premium over Greece. The divergence showed that cheaper western European power was not translating fully into the Hungarian and SEE markets despite the broad regional price retreat.
Regional fundamentals pointed to renewable generation as the main bearish influence. Forecast solar output across the monitored region rose by about 1,154 MW day on day to 7,122 MW, while wind increased by 318 MW to 2,375 MW. Total forecast consumption was virtually unchanged at 32,689 MW, just 29 MW higher than a day earlier.
The fall in prices was particularly notable because the region was expected to rely less heavily on imports. Net HU+SEE imports fell to 1,954 MW from 2,637 MW, while inflows from the core Austrian and Slovak direction dropped by 861 MW to 2,888 MW. At the same time, SEE exports towards Italy increased to 1,279 MW from 1,052 MW, keeping a sizeable south-to-west flow despite Italy’s premium.
That combination suggests the additional renewable supply was sufficient not only to replace part of the reduced imports but also to compress prices across much of the Balkans. The effect was strongest in Serbia, Greece and Bulgaria, while Albania remained comparatively tight and Italy continued to provide the strongest export price signal.
The hourly structure nevertheless remained highly volatile. On HUPX, Friday prices fell as low as €51.1/MWh around hour 14 before reaching €304.1/MWh in hour 21. The resulting €253/MWh intraday range underlined the increasingly sharp difference between solar-heavy daytime hours and the evening ramp.
Serbia showed a similar but less extreme profile. SEEPEX fell to a minimum of €69.9/MWh around hour 13 before climbing to €244.9/MWh in hour 21. Its base price of €149.8/MWh was well below the seven-day average of €142.2/MWh only in absolute? Wait – correction: Friday’s price remained above the seven-day average of €142.2/MWh even after the steep day-on-day decline, showing that the market had eased from Thursday’s spike rather than returned to low-price conditions.
The forward curve was less uniformly bearish than the spot market. Hungary’s Week 37 contract rose €4.5/MWh to €180.50/MWh, while Week 38 slipped €5 to €178.50. October fell a much sharper €14 to €186/MWh, with the calendar contract unchanged at €141/MWh. The Week 37 Hungary-Germany forward spread widened by €3 to €40.50/MWh, while the October spread narrowed by €8.5 to €36/MWh.
Fuel and carbon markets provided some additional downside. CEGH gas was quoted at €73.69/MWh, down €1.2, while EU carbon allowances eased €0.5 to €83.53/tonne. October and fourth-quarter gas forwards both fell €2 to €73/MWh, and API-2 coal contracts eased €0.5 to €136.5/tonne.
For the SEE market, Friday’s data therefore point to a shift from this week’s scarcity-driven price escalation towards a more renewable-led daily structure rather than a broad return to cheap power. Serbia’s €149.76/MWh price and Greece’s €159.57/MWh level show substantial relief from Thursday, but evening prices above €240-300/MWh and Hungary’s €90.82/MWh premium to Germany indicate that regional flexibility and cross-border constraints remain the dominant pricing risk once solar production fades.
