Southeast European day-ahead electricity markets diverged sharply on Thursday, September 17, as stronger solar generation pushed prices lower across the central Balkans while tighter conditions and cross-border constraints kept Hungary, Slovenia and Austria at substantial premiums.
Serbia’s SEEPEX recorded the region’s lowest baseload price at €109.08/MWh, down €42.80 from the previous session. The Serbian contract settled almost €69/MWh below Hungary, creating one of the widest price spreads in the region.
Prices also fell across the interconnected western Balkan markets. Albania declined €22.40 to €147.53/MWh, Montenegro dropped €26.90 to €143.02/MWh, and North Macedonia fell €12.30 to €141.67/MWh.
Southern markets remained significantly cheaper than Hungary despite price increases in Bulgaria and Greece. Bulgaria rose €18.80 to €159.11/MWh, while Greece gained €18.90 to €142.30/MWh. Romania was unchanged at €169.19/MWh.
Hungarian HUPX moved in the opposite direction, increasing €9.70 to €177.76/MWh. Slovenia recorded an even stronger increase of €21.10 to €191.57/MWh, while Austria rose to €189.48/MWh.
The widening price split suggests that low-cost generation available in the Balkans could not flow freely into higher-priced Hungarian and Slovenian markets. Hungary traded at a premium of €18.65/MWh over Bulgaria, €35.46/MWh over Greece and €34.73/MWh over Montenegro.
Germany’s price simultaneously fell €39.40 to €142.89/MWh, reversing the previous Hungarian discount and creating a €34.87/MWh Hungarian premium over Germany. The HU-DE spread therefore swung by more than €49/MWh in a single session.
Imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungary-Slovenia area consequently increased by 719 MW to an average 1,302 MW. Combined net imports across Hungary and Southeast Europe rose by 833 MW to 939 MW, indicating that higher-priced central markets required substantially more external supply.
Regional electricity demand was forecast at 29,745 MW, up 844 MW day on day. Hungary accounted for 4,749 MW, Greece for 5,687 MW, Romania and Bulgaria together for 9,097 MW, and Slovenia and Croatia for 8,922 MW.
Renewable generation provided a mixed signal. Forecast solar output increased by 1,815 MW to 7,730 MW, helping push daytime prices lower across several Balkan markets. Wind generation, however, declined by 826 MW to 2,115 MW, increasing reliance on imports and dispatchable generation during non-solar hours.
The stronger solar forecast was therefore enough to drive prices lower in Serbia, Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia, but it failed to eliminate scarcity premiums farther north. The result was a fragmented regional market in which geography and available cross-border transmission capacity mattered more than the overall regional supply balance.
Italy remained the region’s most expensive market at €222.81/MWh, despite a daily decline of €4.90. It traded €45.05/MWh above Hungary and more than €113/MWh above Serbia, maintaining strong incentives for northward and westward exports wherever transmission capacity was available.
Hungarian forward prices offered little evidence that the tight market would ease quickly. The week-39 contract edged down to €179.50/MWh, while week 40 increased to €185.50/MWh. October remained higher at €195/MWh, and the calendar-2026 contract stood at €149.50/MWh.
The September 17 market was therefore not simply divided between surplus and deficit countries. Serbia’s sharp price decline alongside rising Hungarian imports highlighted a deeper structural constraint: cheap Balkan electricity was available, but the grid could not deliver enough of it to the markets willing to pay the highest prices.
