January 2026 marked a significant shift in the electricity trading landscape of South-East Europe, moving away from the crisis-driven dynamics that characterized the previous years. The region has experienced a notable recovery in trade volumes, with a resurgence of liquidity that has fostered cross-border flows and revitalized organized exchanges. This transition indicates a return to market-driven optimization rather than emergency measures.
The Serbian day-ahead market operated by SEEPEX provided clear evidence of this trend. During the first half of January, average daily traded volumes fluctuated between 12.9 GWh and 16.5 GWh, with several trading sessions exceeding 15 GWh. This trend suggests total monthly volumes between 420 GWh and 450 GWh, a substantial increase compared to January 2025, which was marred by regulatory uncertainties and reduced exchange activity.
Price movements reflected the reestablishment of market dynamics. Day-ahead prices varied from €66.9/MWh on days with favorable hydro conditions to peaks over €125/MWh during cold spells and constrained system conditions. Notably, rising prices did not deter trading volumes; instead, they indicated that generators and large consumers were willing to engage with the market rather than retreating into fixed bilateral contracts.
Regionally, Bulgaria and Romania emerged as key players due to their advantageous structural positions. Both countries benefitted from flexible generation capabilities and robust export potential.
Bulgaria’s energy sector entered winter with a strong foundation. Nuclear output from Kozloduy provided stable baseload power around 2 GW, while lignite plants continued operating despite increased carbon costs. As a result, wholesale prices remained competitive within a €95–115/MWh range, facilitating exports to Serbia, Greece, and North Macedonia during periods of tight supply in neighboring markets.
Romania exhibited similar strengths through its diverse energy mix. The combination of nuclear, hydro, wind, and gas generation enabled it to achieve day-ahead prices between €90 and €120/MWh, supporting both exports and profitable arbitrage against higher-priced markets. Romania’s ability to adapt during intraday fluctuations further enhanced its trading position amid varying wind output forecasts.
The significance of cross-border capacity became increasingly evident in January 2026. Interconnectors linking Greece–Bulgaria, Romania–Hungary, and Serbia–Hungary were utilized at high rates, with price spreads often exceeding €5–8/MWh. These spreads provided substantial congestion rents and trading margins for participants equipped with transmission rights capable of rapid power movement across borders.
This environment favored professional trading entities with regional portfolios. Prominent international players such as Axpo, MET Group, Statkraft, RWE Supply & Trading, and Engie Trading actively participated across South-East European hubs. Their diversified portfolios allowed for simultaneous optimization across various markets including Central Europe and Italy.
Local incumbents also played crucial roles in maintaining market stability. EPS was active as a seller during favorable hydro conditions while Serbian operators provided necessary intraday flexibility. In Croatia, HEP optimized hydro resources to support domestic supply while exporting surplus power when possible. Greece’s PPC transitioned into both buyer and seller roles as it moved toward a more balanced energy profile supported by renewables.
The monetization of flexibility became a prominent aspect of January’s trading environment. Assets such as hydro cascades and pumped storage systems captured significant value through intraday price spreads that reached €20–40/MWh between midday oversupply and evening peak demand periods. Although full implementation of 15-minute trading intervals is still pending across the region, price behaviors increasingly rewarded assets capable of rapid response over static baseload operations.
From an organizational perspective, January highlighted the gradual dismantling of distortions prevalent during the crisis years. Emergency price caps and export restrictions have largely diminished as bilateral contracts began coexisting more pragmatically with exchange trading. Industrial consumers returned to day-ahead markets for managing marginal exposure while generators sought spot markets for monetizing additional output rather than committing everything to long-term agreements.
The SEEPEX exchange benefited significantly from these developments. Increased transaction volumes enhanced price discovery processes while reducing risk premiums associated with bilateral contracts. Days exceeding 15 GWh positioned SEEPEX among Europe’s more liquid secondary hubs, reinforcing its role as a reference point for Serbia and the broader Western Balkans region.
The challenges faced by import-dependent systems like North Macedonia and parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina were evident as they struggled against peak-hour prices often exceeding €120/MWh due to limited flexibility in their energy systems. Their inability to capitalize on low-price hours or exploit intraday volatility resulted in higher procurement costs overall.
For industrial buyers navigating this landscape in January 2026 did not suggest a return to lower electricity prices but represented an opportunity for strategic engagement within a more tradable market framework. Elevated pricing persisted; however, improved liquidity and transparency alongside cross-border access facilitated layered procurement strategies that mitigated full-year exposure risks associated with crisis-level premiums.
This month served not merely as a transitional phase but confirmed an emerging equilibrium within South-East Europe’s energy markets. While electricity remains costly overall, operational functionality is restored. Market success is increasingly determined by connectivity, flexibility, and sophisticated trading strategies rather than mere installed capacity alone; henceforth shaping regional outcomes based on diversified generation capabilities and professional trading approaches.
