Lower wind and solar generation tightened Southeast European electricity markets in the week to September 13, contributing to higher wholesale prices despite a broader decline in regional electricity demand.
Combined variable renewable generation fell 7% to 3.66 TWh during the week. Solar generation decreased 8.7% to 2.11 TWh, while wind output declined 4.6% to 1.55 TWh, reducing the availability of low-marginal-cost electricity across the region.
The impact of the two technologies was different. Lower solar generation reduced electricity supply mainly during daylight hours, increasing the need for hydropower and thermal generation during morning and evening demand ramps. Weaker wind output had a broader impact because it reduced generation during both daytime and overnight periods.
Croatia recorded the largest decline in combined wind and solar generation, with output falling 24.3%. The reduction coincided with an 8.5% increase in the country’s wholesale electricity price to €176.34/MWh, despite a significant increase in hydropower generation.
Hungary also experienced a notable decline in variable renewable output, down 12.3%. Thermal generation increased by 33.3% as the market relied more heavily on conventional generation, but the additional supply was not enough to prevent the wholesale price from rising to €177.31/MWh.
Türkiye recorded a 9.6% decline in renewable generation, driven mainly by a 12.4% reduction in wind output. However, the weaker renewable supply did not result in higher weekly prices. Türkiye’s average electricity price fell 8.9% to €47.37/MWh, remaining well below prices in the interconnected European markets.
Romania provided the main regional countertrend. Variable renewable generation increased 26.7%, supported by an almost 80% surge in wind output. The stronger renewable supply helped the country sharply reduce its imports while meeting a modest increase in domestic demand. Nevertheless, Romania’s wholesale electricity price rose 6.2% to €177.28/MWh, reflecting broader regional market conditions and price coupling.
Bulgaria also recorded a 4.2% increase in wind and solar generation, while Greece saw combined renewable output decline 5.1%, alongside reductions in hydropower and gas-fired generation.
The Week 37 data highlight the importance of looking at wind and solar generation separately when assessing regional electricity markets. Solar shortages tend to create more concentrated periods of supply tightness, while changes in wind generation can affect a larger portion of the daily price curve.
The simultaneous decline in both technologies increased the value of flexible hydropower, energy storage, thermal generation and available cross-border capacity, particularly as lower renewable output coincided with reduced regional electricity trading.
Elevated by Virtu.Energy
