Natural gas prices in Bulgaria are expected to remain largely unchanged in June even as European spot prices rise amid geopolitical uncertainty and tightening supply conditions. A pricing proposal submitted by Bulgargaz to the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (KEVR) projects the regulated gas price for next month at €35.62/MWh, slightly below May levels. European spot gas prices have climbed to around €46/MWh.
June supply arrangements for Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s gas supply mix for June will include contracted Azerbaijani gas and LNG deliveries arriving via Turkish terminals operated by BOTAŞ. Bulgargaz has also secured an agreement with Shell for an LNG cargo intended for both summer consumption and injections into the country’s Chiren underground gas storage facility. Scheduled maintenance at the Alexandroupoli LNG terminal will keep it closed until 1 July, with the cargo rerouted through Turkey.
Azerbaijani pricing link to delayed oil derivative moves
A long-term supply agreement with Azerbaijan has been a key factor supporting relatively lower gas prices in Bulgaria in recent months. The pricing formula is updated quarterly and linked to oil derivative prices with a delay of around nine months. Bulgargaz management warned earlier this year that higher global oil prices seen in March and April—when Brent crude briefly exceeded $120 per barrel and averaged above $100—are expected to affect Azerbaijani gas pricing starting in July.
EU storage refill season and Chiren injection needs
Bulgaria and the wider European market are entering a gas storage refill season after winter drawdowns. European countries depleted reserves during the winter while expecting lower LNG prices later in the year, but geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East have complicated those expectations. Reported attacks on gas infrastructure in Qatar and concerns around the Strait of Hormuz are among the cited factors.
Gas Infrastructure Europe data shows EU gas storage facilities are currently about 39% full, which is low for this stage of the season compared with recent years. KEVR has noted that Bulgargaz already has contracts and schedules for injections into Chiren. Under EU rules, member states are required to fill storage sites to 90% capacity ahead of the winter heating season, while Chiren is currently only 22.6% full.
