Bulgaria emerged as one of the stronger export-side markets in Week 24, with renewable generation gains and regional price softness supporting a larger outward trade position. The Bulgarian day-ahead average fell 7.2% to €93.58/MWh, keeping the market close to Greece and Croatia but below Romania and Hungary.
Demand increased, but not enough to absorb the full supply-side improvement. Bulgarian consumption rose 3.0% to 477.68 GWh. Variable renewable generation increased 12.8%, adding support to the domestic balance at a time when several neighbouring markets were also seeing stronger summer load.
Hydro was the weak point. Bulgarian hydropower generation fell by 42.9 GWh, or 21.8%, one of the steepest weekly hydro declines in the region. This could have tightened the market, but the combination of renewables and thermal generation allowed Bulgaria to expand its export position.
Net exports rose by 41.3 GWh, or 103.2%, making Bulgaria one of the clearest weekly beneficiaries of improved regional supply availability. The export increase is particularly relevant because Bulgaria sits at the intersection of Balkan flows, with links toward Greece, Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia and Türkiye influencing regional clearing dynamics.
The Bulgarian signal is not only about price. It points to the growing importance of flexible cross-border scheduling in weeks when renewables strengthen but hydro moves lower. Bulgaria’s ability to expand exports while maintaining a price level below Romania and Hungary reinforces its role as a balancing and transit market in Southeast Europe.
For traders, Bulgaria remains a market where renewable output, lignite availability, hydro conditions and cross-border nominations can quickly change the commercial position. Week 24 showed that even with weaker hydro, Bulgaria can become a stronger exporter when the wider regional system has enough renewable and thermal support.
