In the third week of October, Brent oil futures for the Front Month in the ICE market began with price declines. On Monday, October 14, they peaked at a weekly maximum settlement price of $77.46 per barrel. However, prices continued to drop throughout the week, reaching a weekly minimum settlement price of $73.06 per barrel by Friday, October 18—a decrease of 7.6% from the previous Friday and the lowest price since October 1, reports AleaSoft.
Concerns about demand trends significantly influenced Brent oil prices. Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC revised their demand growth forecasts downward for 2024, primarily due to shifts in demand from China. Although fears of supply disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict eased after Israel announced it would not target Iranian oil facilities, rising tensions in the region could still affect prices in the upcoming week.
Meanwhile, TTF gas futures in the ICE market for the Front Month reached a weekly high of €40.56 per megawatt-hour (MWh) on October 14, reflecting a 1.7% increase from the previous Friday. However, a downward trend began the following day, with prices falling below €40/MWh for the remainder of the week. By Friday, October 18, these futures hit their weekly low of €39.20/MWh, down 1.7% from the prior week. Despite the weekly decline, the average settlement price remained 0.5% higher than the previous week, attributed to high levels of liquefied natural gas supply and forecasts for milder temperatures leading to decreased demand.
For CO2 emission allowance futures in the EEX market for the December 2024 reference contract, prices peaked at €65.97 per ton on October 14, a 2.1% increase from the previous Friday and the highest since September 28. However, prices fell through the rest of the week, closing at €62.28 per ton on October 18, down 3.6% from the previous Friday. Nonetheless, the weekly average settlement price was still 1.8% higher than the previous week’s average.
In summary, the third week of October saw notable fluctuations in the prices of Brent oil, TTF gas, and CO2 emissions allowances, driven by evolving demand forecasts and market dynamics, reports AleaSoft.
