Electricity market developments during 2026 are pointing to a change in how long-term value is assessed for renewables across Southeast Europe, according to Electricity.Trade. The report says the renewable asset with the highest long-term strategic value may no longer be solar, but wind. It links the shift to how electricity markets price energy rather than to changes in wind or solar resource quality.
For much of the past decade, solar power dominated the regional renewables narrative as falling equipment costs and improved financing conditions supported photovoltaic project development. Developers, infrastructure funds and banks treated solar as a preferred investment vehicle. Across Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Croatia, Serbia and increasingly Montenegro, solar pipelines expanded quickly, with gigawatts entering operation and more capacity moving through permitting and financing. Investors competed for land, grid capacity and development rights.
From levelized costs to time-dependent pricing
The report describes a growing distinction between producing electricity and producing electricity that is valued by the market. It says the renewable sector’s earlier focus centered on levelized cost of energy and an assumption that the cheapest technology would eventually dominate. Solar is still described as among the lowest-cost new generation options. The issue identified is that electricity prices are no longer uniform across the day.
As renewable penetration rises, the timing of generation increasingly affects revenue outcomes. This became visible during May 2026, when average solar output across Southeast Europe reached 5,632 MW. Wind output in the same period reached 2,833 MW. Solar accounted for approximately 22% of regional generation, making it one of the largest contributors to supply.
The report says solar’s scale can weaken its own economics when large volumes enter simultaneously. With thousands of megawatts of photovoltaic production appearing at once, supply can overwhelm demand during peak solar hours. Prices are described as declining precisely when solar facilities generate their maximum output. The phenomenon is referred to as capture-price erosion or solar cannibalisation.
Greece highlights midday price pressure from rapid PV buildout
The report says capture-price erosion is visible beyond Western European markets such as Spain, Germany and the Netherlands, and is increasingly apparent across Southeast Europe. It identifies Greece as a clear example of how fast-growing solar capacity affects midday pricing. Over recent years Greece has become one of Europe’s fastest-growing solar markets with gigawatts of photovoltaic capacity entering operation.
As a result, midday electricity prices in Greece are described as weakening, with negative pricing events becoming more frequent. Merchant revenues are said to face growing pressure even though solar projects continue producing electricity as expected. The report attributes lower revenues to many projects operating during what it characterizes as the least valuable hours of the day.
Wind output aligns with higher-value evening and night hours
The report contrasts wind generation patterns with those of solar facilities. It says wind farms often produce significant volumes during evenings, nights and shoulder periods. These hours are described as times when electricity prices remain strongest. When solar output fades after sunset, demand is said to remain elevated.
In those periods, system operators require additional supply as gas plants ramp upward and hydropower increases production, according to the report. Balancing resources are described as becoming more valuable and electricity prices rise. The report says wind generation increasingly captures these higher-value periods, creating what it calls a growing wind premium.
A megawatt-hour generated by a wind turbine at 8 p.m., the report says, may earn materially more than a megawatt-hour generated by a solar project at noon. It adds that capture-price analysis is becoming as important as annual production forecasts for investors. It also states that a solar facility may generate more electricity than a wind farm while wind can still deliver superior financial returns.
Regional development implications: Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Montenegro
The report says the shift in valuation criteria is influencing development activity across Southeast Europe. It highlights Romania as an example where onshore wind resources are described as among Europe’s strongest, particularly in the Dobrogea region. Historically those resources attracted major investment before subsequent years saw solar development accelerate dramatically.
The report says investors increasingly recognize wind’s complementary role alongside solar in Romania’s future system needs both technologies. It also describes Bulgaria’s battery sector as receiving headlines while saying wind development may prove equally important by reducing dependence on imported balancing power and complementing rapidly expanding solar portfolios. In Serbia, it points to wind projects near major interconnection corridors that can access multiple markets simultaneously within regional transmission networks.
The report also describes Montenegro as having strong wind resources combined with access to the Adriatic export corridor and the Italian market. It says future wind developments could benefit from domestic demand and access to premium-priced export destinations through those routes.
Italian price levels and financing focus on capture prices
The Italian market remains highlighted in the report as particularly important for renewable revenue opportunities. It states that average Italian prices during May were substantially above those observed across much of Southeast Europe. This creates opportunities for renewable projects able to deliver electricity during high-demand periods.
The report says wind generation aligns naturally with that requirement because it produces during evening and night hours when prices remain stronger. It also links the growing wind premium to financing practices by stating banks increasingly evaluate capture prices alongside generation forecasts rather than focusing primarily on annual production estimates used about a decade ago.
The report says this change affects debt sizing, cash-flow projections and project valuations because lenders increasingly examine when production occurs rather than only how much is produced annually. It adds that wind projects frequently show stronger alignment with periods of higher market value compared with other technologies under these conditions.
Solar remains part of the transition but merchant economics face pressure
The report does not describe solar as unattractive and says it remains a critical component of Southeast Europe’s energy transition. However, it states that standalone merchant solar economics are becoming more challenging under current market dynamics. It says solar increasingly requires complementary technologies such as battery storage, flexible demand, industrial offtakers and hybrid project structures.
It also notes that wind often requires less support because its production profile naturally aligns with market needs under time-dependent pricing conditions described earlier in the report. The implications extend beyond developers into utilities, traders and industrial consumers seeking diversified renewable portfolios.
The report describes systems dominated by solar generation as experiencing substantial intraday volatility while combinations including wind, solar, hydro and storage create greater stability. It adds that diversification becomes increasingly valuable as renewable penetration rises across Southeast Europe.
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