Southeast European day-ahead electricity prices rose sharply on September 21 as weekday demand recovered, while Hungary remained at a significant premium to most neighbouring markets despite stronger renewable generation.
Hungary’s HUPX benchmark increased by €46.40/MWh to €188.74/MWh, the highest price among the region’s major interconnected markets. Romania followed at €183.27/MWh, Greece at €181.18/MWh and Bulgaria at €177.47/MWh.
Prices also strengthened across the Western Balkans. Albania settled at €176.12/MWh, Montenegro at €163.20/MWh and North Macedonia at €162.16/MWh. Croatia reached €155.92/MWh, Slovenia €148.12/MWh, while Serbia’s SEEPEX market settled at €147.71/MWh.
Serbia recorded one of the lowest average prices in the region despite a €30.20/MWh daily increase. SEEPEX traded €41.03/MWh below HUPX, while the discounts in Slovenia and Croatia stood at €40.61/MWh and €32.82/MWh, respectively.
The regional increase was therefore far from uniform. Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece formed a higher-priced eastern group, while Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia remained significantly cheaper. Montenegro and North Macedonia were positioned between the two groups.
Italy remained the most expensive neighbouring market at €224.23/MWh, representing a premium of €35.50/MWh over Hungary and an even wider gap compared with the Western Balkans. Austria settled at €137.98/MWh, while Germany remained the lowest-priced major benchmark at €96.60/MWh, despite a daily increase of almost €75/MWh.
The Hungary-Germany price spread narrowed by €28.40/MWh but remained exceptionally wide at €92.14/MWh. Hungary’s premium over Greece also increased, reaching €7.56/MWh.
Regional electricity demand was forecast to average 29,301 MW, an increase of 4,081 MW from Sunday as industrial and commercial activity resumed. Demand rose by 1,858 MW across Romania and Bulgaria, 1,288 MW in Slovenia and Croatia, 476 MW in Hungary and 458 MW in Greece.
The recovery in demand more than offset higher renewable generation. Regional solar output was forecast to increase by 1,474 MW to 5,808 MW, while wind generation rose by 356 MW to 2,009 MW. Combined solar and wind output was therefore expected to reach approximately 7.82 GW.
At the same time, net imports into Hungary and Southeast Europe declined by 591 MW to 2,095 MW. Gross inflows from Austria and Slovakia edged higher to 3,001 MW, suggesting that stronger regional generation and changing cross-border flows absorbed part of the increase in weekday consumption.
Hungary remained a net importer of around 1,031 MW, while Romania imported approximately 912 MW, Croatia 700 MW, Serbia 602 MW and Greece 113 MW. Bulgaria was the notable net exporter, with an estimated surplus of around 1,461 MW.
Electricity flows towards Italy averaged approximately 1,039 MW, supported by the Italian market’s substantial price premium. Strong Italian demand therefore continued to create an export pull on electricity generated in Southeast Europe, limiting the amount of lower-priced supply available within regional markets.
Forward contracts also pointed to continued price pressure. Hungarian week 39 power increased by €14.50/MWh to €205/MWh, while week 40 gained €9/MWh to €197.50/MWh. The October contract rose by €9.50/MWh to €208/MWh, while the calendar 2026 contract advanced by €4/MWh to €153.50/MWh.
Hungary’s forward premium over Germany reached €35/MWh for October, compared with €20/MWh for week 40 and €21.50/MWh for calendar 2026. The price structure indicates that transmission constraints and regional supply risks remain important factors in Hungarian forward pricing.
Energy markets provided limited relief. Austrian CEGH gas traded at €79.95/MWh, while October and fourth-quarter gas contracts increased by €3.50/MWh to €81/MWh. EU carbon allowances remained at €86.89 per tonne.
Coal prices moved in the opposite direction, with the October contract falling by €2 to €136.50 per tonne and the fourth-quarter contract declining by €1.50 to €137 per tonne. However, lower coal prices were not enough to counter the impact of higher gas and carbon costs combined with stronger electricity demand.
Weather conditions could provide additional support for demand. Average temperatures across Hungary and Southeast Europe, excluding Greece, were forecast to fall from around 19.2°C on September 21 to 14.4°C on September 22. Serbia was expected to decline from 18.8°C to 14.2°C, while Bulgaria was forecast to fall from 19.1°C to 13.8°C.
The latest session points to a strong return of weekday electricity demand and higher spot prices, but the unusually large differences between neighbouring markets remain the key feature of the regional market. Serbia, Slovenia and Croatia continue to record lower prices, while limited cross-border capacity and strong Italian demand prevent those discounts from fully narrowing the gap with Hungary and the eastern Balkan markets.
