Day-ahead electricity prices rose across most of Southeast Europe for Friday delivery as weaker wind generation increased the region’s import requirement, widening Hungary’s premium over Germany despite stronger solar output.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload price rose €2.50 to €180.25/MWh, the highest among the main Central and Southeast European markets outside Italy. The Hungarian-German spread widened by nearly €25 to €59.72/MWh, as German power prices fell €22.40 to €120.53/MWh.
The widening price gap coincided with a sharp increase in electricity flows into Hungary and Southeast Europe from Austria and Slovakia. Core imports were forecast to average 2,605 MW, an increase of 1,252 MW from Thursday, while the region’s overall net import position expanded by 1,443 MW to 2,569 MW.
The main driver was weaker wind generation. Regional wind output was forecast to decline by 932 MW to 1,140 MW, more than offsetting a 1,065 MW increase in solar generation to 7,208 MW.
Regional electricity consumption was expected to increase only moderately, rising by 222 MW to 29,600 MW, despite average temperatures climbing by around one degree Celsius. The combination of lower wind availability and broadly stable demand therefore increased reliance on imports and higher-cost thermal generation.
The strongest price increase was recorded in Serbia, where the SEEPEX baseload price surged €50.50 to €159.62/MWh. Despite the sharp rise, Serbia remained €20.63/MWh below Hungary.
Greece also recorded a substantial increase, with prices rising €26.60 to €168.90/MWh, while Albania gained €24.10 to €171.58/MWh.
Romanian prices increased €7.30 to €176.48/MWh, reducing the gap with Hungary to just €3.77/MWh. Bulgaria advanced €10.40 to €169.55/MWh.
Price movements were more mixed elsewhere in the region. Slovenia fell €23.20 to €168.41/MWh, while Croatia edged down €1.90 to €170.33/MWh. Montenegro rose to €148.13/MWh, while North Macedonia remained the cheapest monitored Southeast European market at €144.54/MWh.
Italy remained the region’s clear high-price market, with its national price easing slightly to €220.83/MWh. The Italian premium stood at more than €40/MWh over Hungary and around €50-76/MWh over most Southeast European markets, preserving a strong commercial incentive for exports towards Italy.
Despite the region’s heavy reliance on northern imports, Southeast Europe was forecast to send an average 464 MW towards Italy, reflecting the significant price differential between the Italian market and its southeastern neighbours.
Power-balance data showed Bulgaria as the largest regional exporter at around 1,551 MW, followed by Greece at 602 MW. Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Serbia remained net importers, with Hungary importing approximately 1,744 MW and Romania 1,203 MW.
Forward power prices also strengthened in Hungary. Week 39 baseload power rose €11 to €190.50/MWh, while week 40 increased €3 to €188.50/MWh. October power gained €3.50 to €198.50/MWh, while the calendar 2026 contract remained unchanged at €149.50/MWh.
The rise in power prices came despite weaker fuel markets. Austrian CEGH gas fell €4.90 to €78.50/MWh, while October gas declined to €77.50/MWh and October coal eased to $138.50 per tonne. EU carbon allowances moved in the opposite direction, rising €1.30 to €86.03 per tonne.
Friday’s market highlighted the growing divergence between northern and western price zones. Southeast Europe was caught between lower-priced German electricity to the north and significantly more expensive Italian demand to the west.
With wind generation falling sharply, transmission availability rather than overall regional consumption became the key constraint. This increased electricity flows through Austria and Slovakia, while the substantial Italian price premium continued to support exports towards Italy.
