Regional electricity demand climbed 8.2% week on week to 15.15 TWh in Week 23, the highest level recorded in recent weeks. The increase was driven primarily by Türkiye, where consumption rose 31.0%, adding around 1.53 TWh of additional demand. The scale of the change was sufficient to dominate the SEE demand picture while offsetting declines in several other markets.
Türkiye-led load growth shifts dispatch requirements
Rising temperatures and stronger cooling load were identified as likely drivers, alongside firmer economic activity. Early June typically marks a transition from spring shoulder-season conditions to summer load patterns in power systems. In Türkiye, that shift was described as especially sharp, resulting in higher dispatch needs and a change in the regional electricity balance.
Türkiye increased thermal generation sharply, with output rising 103.2% week on week to 2.03 TWh. Coal generation went up 55.7%, while gas-fired production jumped 278.1%. The gas-fired rise was highlighted as indicating the need for flexible thermal capacity to meet the sudden demand increase and compensate for weaker wind conditions.
Hydropower and solar support amid higher residual load
Hydropower also contributed to the adjustment, with Turkish hydro generation up 15.4%, or around 356 GWh, reaching 2.66 TWh. This made Türkiye the main factor behind the regional hydro increase, as total SEE hydro generation rose 10.1% week on week to 3.97 TWh. Without Türkiye’s higher hydro output, the regional system would have relied more on thermal generation and cross-border imports.
Variable renewables provided only partial relief, with Türkiye remaining the only SEE market where total variable renewable output increased, up 1.2%. The increase was supported by a 61.0% surge in solar generation that offset lower wind output. Solar gains helped during daylight hours, but evening thermal ramping remained necessary as cooling demand and residual load stayed high.
Day-ahead prices rise sharply but remain below regional levels
The price response in Türkiye differed from the broader SEE pattern, with Turkish day-ahead prices rebounding strongly in percentage terms while staying far below regional peers. The weekly average rose from €4.03/MWh to €22.53/MWh, a reported 459% increase. Even after that move, Türkiye’s level remained well below Greece at €89.25/MWh, Serbia at €99.63/MWh, Bulgaria at €100.83/MWh, Hungary at €103.15/MWh, and Italy at €128.09/MWh.
The divergence was linked to factors including market design and local supply balance, as well as hydro and thermal availability, alongside Türkiye’s partial integration with wider European day-ahead price formation logic . For SEE trading flows, Türkiye’s demand affects electricity movements, fuel demand and regional thermal dispatch, even though Turkish prices do not yet behave like a fully converged SEE price node .
Türkiye remains a net exporter while regional thermal output rises
Türkiye also stayed a net exporter during the week, although exports fell by 13.6% compared with Week 22 . With demand rising sharply, the system still maintained net exports supported by hydro, solar and a major thermal response. This helped limit movement of domestic prices toward neighbouring market levels.
The wider regional effect remained supportive for conventional generation patterns, with Türkiye’s higher demand contributing to the overall SEE demand increase of 8.2%. Its thermal ramp helped lift regional thermal generation by 24.5% week on week to 4.22 TWh. The shift reinforced the role of fuel prices and carbon-linked marginal costs across the region even as Turkish spot prices stayed unusually low .
Ties to gas burn and TurkStream maintenance timing
The Week 23 changes were also relevant for gas markets because a 278.1% increase in gas-fired power generation implies stronger power-sector gas burn . This occurred while European gas prices were already elevated and TurkStream maintenance was taking place . Türkiye sits at the intersection of electricity demand, gas transit and regional supply security, so changes in its power sector can affect considerations beyond its domestic market.
The data for Week 23 indicated that Türkiye could alter the SEE electricity volume balance without necessarily transmitting a comparable price signal . That combination was described as making Türkiye central to regional aggregates through its demand, hydro and thermal movements while remaining exceptional due to its price level relative to neighbouring markets.
