European gas risk returned to the centre of Southeast European power-market attention in early June as TTF prices approached €50/MWh and geopolitical concerns around LNG supply routes intensified. The impact on electricity markets across the region was described as uneven, but the direction of risk was linked to gas-driven marginal pricing. The report also pointed to sensitivity during evening peak hours and periods when renewable output is lower.
Week 23 TTF levels and forward pricing
During Week 23, TTF gas futures averaged €48.56/MWh, up 4.3% compared with the previous week. The one-month forward contract traded near €49.335/MWh, equivalent to around $16.72/MMBtu, at the time of publication. Daily TTF values were relatively steady within the week, while the overall level stayed elevated for early summer.
The report connected the higher baseline to a risk premium associated with Middle East tensions, LNG availability and storage replenishment. It cited a stalemate in US-Iran talks alongside renewed regional fighting as key drivers behind market concern. The report framed the issue as broader than direct European supply, linking it to the global LNG system.
LNG route exposure and Qatari supply scenario
Around 20% of global LNG trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and more than 85% of those volumes normally head to Asian markets. The report said any disruption to Qatari LNG exports would push Asian buyers to compete more aggressively for alternative cargoes, including Atlantic Basin LNG that Europe also requires. This would keep Europe exposed even as direct dependence on Qatari LNG has fallen to around 8% of total imports.
The analysis stated that LNG pricing is global, so if Asian buyers lose access to part of their usual Qatari supply they can bid cargoes away from Europe. In that case, European prices would need to rise to secure sufficient LNG and preserve winter security. The report further cited analysis suggesting European benchmark gas prices may need to increase by 40–50% from current levels if Qatari export disruptions persist.
Storage, US export utilisation and price balancing
The report highlighted storage as another constraint, with European inventories around 38%% full after exiting February near 35%% and below the five-year average. It said early-summer storage matters because Europe needs to rebuild inventories before winter. If LNG competition intensifies while storage remains relatively low, the market can reprice quickly.
On US supply flexibility, export facilities were operating at approximately 94%% utilisation, leaving limited spare capacity for a sudden rise in European or Asian demand. The report suggested that under such conditions price would be the main balancing mechanism rather than additional immediate supply. It said higher TTF prices would be needed to divert cargoes toward Europe or other buyers.
SEE generation shifts in Week 23
The report said implications for Southeast Europe were visible in Week 23 generation data, starting with Türkiye where gas-fired output increased by 278.1%. Romania recorded higher thermal production supported by stronger gas-fired output as well. Greece’s total thermal generation rose even though its gas output declined modestly while lignite generation increased.
Italy reduced gas-fired generation during the week, but the report described it as structurally exposed to gas-linked price formation. It also pointed to pipeline risk affecting regional supply dynamics through TurkStream during scheduled maintenance from 2 June to 10 June. It said TurkStream is now the only remaining route for Russian pipeline gas deliveries to Europe after the Russia–Ukraine transit agreement expired on 1 January 2025.
LNG inflows and TurkStream-linked monitoring
The report said TurkStream supplies Türkiye, Serbia, Hungary and Slovakia, making any interruption closely watched by regional markets even when planned. Gas-flow data showed mixed LNG movements across countries covered by the report. LNG inflows to Greece recovered sharply to 860.32 GWh, up 112.9%% week on week.
