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June 2026 Week 23 SEE power prices diverge between southern tightening and Serbia softness

Southeast Europe’s wholesale electricity markets opened June with a split between firmer southern pricing and softer Central SEE levels during the first week of June. In Week 23 (1–7 June 2026), the weekly day-ahead average rose most in Bulgaria, up 7.8% week on week to €100.83/MWh. Prices also increased in Italy to €128.09/MWh (+3.7%) and in Greece to €89.25/MWh (+2.9%). The southern price complex was supported by higher regional demand, weaker variable renewables and tighter evening balancing conditions.

Central and Western SEE show declines

Central and Western markets moved in the opposite direction during the same period. Serbia recorded the sharpest fall, with its weekly average down 5.8% to €99.63/MWh. Hungary slipped 2.0% to €103.15/MWh, Croatia declined 1.6% to €99.29/MWh, and Romania eased 1.2% to €102.23/MWh. The changes pointed to local supply conditions, hydro availability, cross-border import options and thermal dispatch patterns as key differentiators.

Weekly price ranking across markets

The relative ordering remained relevant for trading desks across the region. With a weekly average of €128.09/MWh, Italy stayed above the rest of the SEE group, reflecting its demand profile, import dependence and gas-linked marginal pricing. A middle cluster formed around Hungary (€103.15/MWh), Romania (€102.23/MWh), and Bulgaria (€100.83/MWh). Serbia (€99.63/MWh) and Croatia (€99.29/MWh) traded just below the €100/MWh level, while Greece (€89.25/MWh) remained cheaper than most neighbouring markets.

Türkiye remains structurally disconnected from SEE stack

The main outlier was Türkiye, where the weekly average rose from €4.03/MWh to €22.53/MWh, equivalent to a 459% increase. The move was not indicative of convergence because Turkish prices remained far below SEE levels. The weekly rise mainly reflected a rebound from an exceptionally low base in the previous week rather than a shift toward regional pricing levels.

Daily and hourly shape during Week 23

The daily pattern showed most SEE markets peaking on Monday, 1 June, with the lowest prices generally recorded on Sunday, 7 June. This aligned with stronger weekday industrial and commercial load, weaker weekend demand and a more favourable renewable balance during lower-load periods. Hourly profiles followed a summer shape, with lower midday prices linked to solar generation depressing residual demand.

The same hourly structure also showed a steep evening ramp as solar output faded, with thermal or hydro units becoming more decisive for residual demand coverage.

Spread between Italy and Greece highlighted alongside Serbia move

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