Southeast Europe entered the last week of May with a split in power pricing between softer Central and Balkan markets and stronger outcomes in Italy and Serbia. Most markets weakened as renewable availability increased and demand eased, while Italy and Serbia moved higher, widening price dispersion across the region. The weekly average price range ran from €4.03/MWh in Türkiye to €123.58/MWh in Italy. Greece stayed comparatively steady at €86.77/MWh, down 0.7% week-on-week, while Bulgaria fell 11.3%, Romania rose 5.1%, Croatia dropped 5.5%, and Hungary declined 3.6%. Serbia was the main bullish exception, with its weekly average up 30.1% to €105.71/MWh, and Türkiye was the extreme outlier after prices fell by more than 73% to €4.03/MWh, reports Electricity.Trade
Weekly price pattern into early June
Italy remained the premium market, with its weekly average increasing 6.3% to €123.58/MWh on weaker wind output and higher thermal generation. Serbia’s move to €105.71/MWh placed it among the more expensive SEE markets despite broadly stable imports. The daily price chart showed most markets peaking around Tuesday and Wednesday, 27–28 May, while Monday, 25 May generally recorded the lowest levels. By 3 June, day-ahead prices across SEE were again trending upward, ranging from €85.72/MWh in Greece to €118.10/MWh in Slovenia.
Demand changes and renewable generation mix
Regional electricity demand fell 5.9% week-on-week from 14.9 TWh to 14.0 TWh, but the figure was heavily influenced by Türkiye. Turkish demand dropped 21.7%, equal to 1.38 TWh, exceeding the full regional decline on its own. Excluding Türkiye, SEE demand was broadly stable, with Italy adding 505 GWh (10.8%), Greece rising 3.8%, and Croatia increasing 6.2%. Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia and Hungary recorded modest demand declines.
Variable renewable generation declined overall, falling 10.1% from 3.74 TWh to 3.36 TWh due to underperformance from wind resources. Wind output dropped 30.0%, or 532 GWh, with the largest reductions in Italy, Türkiye and Romania. Solar generation increased by 7.8%, or 153 GWh, supported by gains in Bulgaria, Romania and Greece; Bulgaria’s variable renewables rose 44.0%, almost entirely on solar.
Hydropower generation also decreased across the region, down 10.2% from 3.98 TWh to 3.57 TWh, mainly because of Türkiye where hydro output fell 19.2% (549 GWh). Outside Türkiye, hydro conditions were more supportive: Italy’s hydro generation rose 26.5% to 696 GWh, Croatia surged 75.4%, and Greece increased by 12.1% to 97 GWh; Bulgaria and Romania recorded moderate declines.
Thermal generation shifts across key markets
Thermal generation fell by 8.5% regionally from 3.78 TWh to 3.46 TWh as coal and lignite output declined by 10.9% and gas-fired generation fell by 7.0%. Türkiye drove much of the reduction with thermal generation down 41.4%, equal to 707 GWh, including a 70.6% fall in gas-fired output; Bulgaria and Serbia also reduced thermal production.
Greece and Romania increased thermal generation by 8.5% and 8.4% respectively, largely through gas-fired units, while Italy raised thermal output by 32.6%. Italy’s gas generation increased by 25.3%, reflecting compensation for weaker wind availability while maintaining domestic balance despite stronger imports.
Cross-border flows and trading positions
Cross-border electricity trade increased week-on-week by 8.4% to a total of 1,117 GWh. Greece remained a major net exporter with exports up 35.7% to 241 GWh, supported by competitive generation alongside relatively stable domestic pricing; Bulgaria improved exports from 6 GWh to 61 GWh. Türkiye almost tripled net exports to 95 GWh.
Italy stayed as the region’s dominant net importer as imports rose by 28.3% to more than 1.1 TWh, reflecting structural reliance on cross-border supply during periods of tight domestic balance; Romania and Croatia increased net imports by 27.1% and 36.5%. Hungary reduced imports by 18.7%, while Serbia’s import position was broadly stable even as its market price rose.
Gas market moves alongside power pricing
European gas prices softened but remained elevated compared with normal seasonal levels as TTF futures averaged €46.56/MWh, down 6.7% week-on-week after peaking at €47.64/MWh on 26 May. The contract closed at €46.00/MWh on 29 May, with the decline linked to improved sentiment, stable LNG inflows, comfortable storage injection and weaker short-term demand.
The report also pointed to geopolitical risk around the Strait of Hormuz and global LNG balances as factors sustaining a premium in European gas prices; at publication the one-month TTF forward traded at €49.200/MWh (equivalent to $16.77/MMBtu). LNG flows were mixed: Greece received 404.07 GWh, up 15.2%; Italy recorded 4,113.50 GWh, up 0.55%; Croatia received 633.39 GWh, down 8.9%.
LNG entries tied to marginal gas-fired exposure
The gas-to-power linkage remained relevant because gas-fired plants were marginal in several SEE and Southern European markets including Italy, Greece and Romania as described in Electricity.Trade . Even with TTF easing into the mid-to-high €40s per MWh range, gas costs around €46–49/MWh implied relatively high short-run costs for CCGT generation after carbon costs and efficiency losses.
This supported why Italy stayed above €120/MWh during the week despite stronger imports and improved hydro output; where gas plants were called more heavily, wholesale electricity prices remained exposed to the TTF risk premium .
Country-level outcomes for Week 22
Greece: weekly average €86.77/MWh (down 0.7%). Demand increased 3.8%, while stronger renewable output and higher hydro supported the balance; exports rose to 241 GWh, up 35.7%.
Italy: weekly average €123.58/MWh (up 6.3%). Demand rose 10.
