Generation mix after earlier operational issues
A 2025 energy-sector assessment says Serbia’s electricity system has recovered from severe operational problems earlier in the decade, but the sector remains exposed to further shocks. Continued reliance on lignite, higher infrastructure costs and slow diversification are cited as key structural risks. The assessment places the current generation profile within that risk picture.
In 2025, lignite accounted for around 70% of Serbian electricity generation. Hydropower supplied roughly 26%. Wind reached around 3.8%, up sharply from negligible levels in 2017, while solar continued to expand from a relatively small base.
Demand shifts and system operators
The generation structure is becoming less aligned with changing demand patterns as summer electricity consumption grows alongside the traditional winter peak. The assessment links this shift to the need for faster deployment of solar, wind, storage and other flexible resources. It also notes that seasonal demand changes affect how the system is expected to operate.
State power utility EPS remains central to system stability because operational and fuel-supply problems can affect the wider electricity chain. This includes transmission operator EMS and distributor EDS. The assessment frames EPS’s role across these connected parts of the system.
Lignite supply plans and transition timeline
EPS is relying heavily on development of the Radljevo lignite mine to reduce coal imports. The assessment also highlights ongoing dependence on imported lignite, raising questions over how quickly Serbia can move away from coal. The mine development is therefore described in relation to import reduction rather than a full decarbonisation pathway.
The period to 2030 is described as critical for maintaining a credible path towards a largely decarbonised electricity sector by 2050. The assessment ties that milestone window to the pace of transition planning for Serbia’s power sector.
Cost overruns, carbon pricing and nuclear outlook
Project costs are identified as a major risk in the assessment. Estimates for the Bistrica pumped-storage hydropower plant have risen by about 15%, while Kostolac B3 was completed at roughly 18% above planned cost. Projected costs for Djerdap 3 have increased by as much as 85%.
The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is adding pressure to coal-based exports. Around 600 MW of offers have reportedly disappeared from the power exchange as carbon-intensive electricity becomes less competitive in the European Union. The assessment presents this change as part of shifting market conditions affecting coal-related trade.
Nuclear generation is described as unlikely to provide a near-term solution. Serbia is not expected to be able to commission a nuclear plant before around 2040, even under favourable conditions. Against that backdrop, investment needs are discussed in relation to flexibility rather than new nuclear capacity.
Flexibility focus through the rest of the decade
The assessment links coal exposure with rising capital costs and increasingly volatile demand. It says this combination makes investment in flexible generation and storage central to Serbia’s power-sector strategy over the remainder of the decade. It frames flexibility as the key element required under current system conditions.
