Serbia’s wholesale electricity price fell by almost 25% for Saturday delivery as weaker weekend demand eased pressure on the market. However, Romania, Bulgaria and Montenegro remained above €230/MWh, highlighting a growing divergence between Serbia and other Southeast European markets facing tighter supply conditions and reduced nuclear generation.
The SEEPEX day-ahead benchmark in Serbia dropped by €58.94/MWh to €181.02/MWh, reversing much of Friday’s sharp increase. Romania’s OPCOM price declined by only €21.32/MWh to €233.88/MWh, while Bulgaria remained close to €233.40/MWh. Montenegro moved in the opposite direction, with its average price rising to €232.04/MWh.
North Macedonia also recorded a decline, with prices falling to €192.91/MWh, while Slovenia averaged around €203.22/MWh. The difference between Serbia and Romania therefore widened to almost €53/MWh, despite both markets benefiting from lower weekend consumption.
The price divergence points to a structural supply issue rather than demand alone. Romania continues to operate without generation from its two Cernavodă nuclear reactors, removing approximately 1.36 GW of firm electricity capacity from the regional market.
Bulgaria is facing similar pressure. Kozloduy’s Unit 6, with capacity of around 1 GW, entered scheduled maintenance on October 8, while Unit 5 remains exposed to the effects of low Danube water levels. These constraints have reduced the availability of dispatchable generation at a time when hydro and wind output have remained less reliable.
Romanian operational data also illustrates the growing role of solar power in balancing the system. Around midday, electricity consumption fell to approximately 4.14 GW, while domestic generation reached 3.73 GW. Solar production contributed roughly 2.05 GW, reducing net imports to about 405 MW.
Earlier in the morning, before photovoltaic generation increased, Romanian electricity imports had exceeded 1.5 GW. The shift demonstrates how solar generation is increasingly reducing daytime import requirements, while also highlighting its limitations during periods of weaker production.
Romanian day-ahead prices ranged from approximately €138/MWh to €342/MWh, showing that lower midday imports did not eliminate evening scarcity. Serbia experienced a similarly wide hourly range, from around €132/MWh to €300/MWh, while Bulgaria and Montenegro reached approximately €336/MWh and €330/MWh, respectively.
These sharp intraday movements continue to strengthen the commercial case for battery storage, pumped hydro and flexible generation. Even when weekend demand lowers average prices, periods of tight supply can still produce significant price spikes.
Turkey remained substantially cheaper, with its day-ahead electricity price averaging around €56/MWh, approximately €177/MWh below Bulgaria. The large difference highlights the limitations of existing cross-border transmission capacity, as relatively low-cost electricity available in Turkey cannot fully flow into neighbouring markets where prices are significantly higher.
Italy remained close to €220/MWh, while Austria increased to approximately €207/MWh, providing only limited relief to the more expensive eastern Southeast European markets.
For electricity traders, the latest market session reinforces the importance of country-specific hedging strategies rather than relying solely on broader European price benchmarks. A supplier hedged against Serbian or German electricity prices may still face substantial procurement exposure in Romania or Bulgaria when transmission constraints prevent prices from converging.
For lenders and investors, the same market conditions increase the value of projects providing dispatchable capacity, energy storage and secure grid access. Saturday’s correction demonstrates that weaker demand can quickly bring prices down where supply is sufficient. At the same time, the persistent premium in Romania and Bulgaria shows that the region remains exposed to a deeper challenge: the loss of firm generation capacity that neighbouring electricity markets cannot fully replace.
