Serbia maintained a relatively low position in Southeast Europe’s wholesale day-ahead market during the second half of August, with stronger hydro, renewable and thermal output supporting exports. A rapid price rebound at the start of September later reduced the gap versus neighbouring markets.
August day-ahead pricing and Serbia’s relative discount
Serbia’s day-ahead market averaged €133.02/MWh during Aug. 17-23. The level was around €22/MWh below Hungary’s €155.16/MWh and roughly €21/MWh below Croatia. In the regional comparison, only Turkey was cheaper than the monitored markets.
The discount coincided with a sharp rise in Serbian electricity consumption. Compared with Week 30 in late July, Serbian demand increased by 13.54%, while consumption across the wider group of monitored Southeast European markets fell by about 6.4%.
Generation mix supports net exports despite higher demand
Serbia offset the stronger demand with a broad increase in domestic generation. Variable renewable output rose 48.9%, hydropower increased by 66.58%, and thermal generation climbed by 12.45%. This enabled Serbia to remain a net exporter despite higher consumption.
The generation mix supported access to a northbound price differential toward Hungary and Croatia. However, the start of September showed that the spread could change quickly as regional market conditions shifted.
September price rebound reduces Serbia’s spread versus HUPX
SEEPEX baseload increased by €34.04/MWh to €166.25/MWh for Sept. 1 delivery. That move cut Serbia’s discount to HUPX to only €10.49/MWh. Hungary cleared at €176.74/MWh, Romania at €177.28/MWh, Bulgaria at €174.59/MWh, and Greece at €174.68/MWh.
Serbian prices then rose to €173.00/MWh for Sept. 2 delivery, according to SEEPEX . The change reflected differences between production-driven conditions and short-term market pricing.
Regional constraints affecting cross-border flows and prices
Serbia’s electricity fleet includes lignite, large hydroelectric plants, wind and a growing solar sector . Hydropower availability depends on hydrology, coal plants are exposed to outages and maintenance, and wind output varies across the region.
The source also noted that rapidly rising solar production is increasingly concentrated in lower-priced daytime hours. Cross-border conditions additionally influenced flows, including Romania’s situation after low Danube levels forced the shutdown of its two Cernavodă reactors.
Romania entered September with nuclear output severely constrained, pushing the Romanian system toward imports after the shutdowns . As weekday demand returned, regional net imports increased, tightening interconnected markets and drawing Serbia closer to the Hungary-Romania-Bulgaria-Greece price cluster.
The earlier Serbia-Hungary gap of €22/MWh seen in Week 34 illustrated the scale of the opportunity when spreads widened . Its rapid contraction at the start of September highlighted that such discounts were not fixed under changing regional conditions.
